HIGHLIGHTSIncorporating modest cuts for barley and sorghum, world 2025/26 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast 1m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,376m. Adjustments to consumption are mainly limited to maize, with projected uptake raised by 3m t from before, now seen at 2,376m, broadly equalling output. The outlook for carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is tighter than before, placed little changed y/y (year-on-year), at 582m t. The grains trade figure is maintained at 430m t.
On the basis of a slower than anticipated pace of Brazilian shipments to key destinations, the forecast for soyabean trade in 2024/25 is trimmed by 1m t m/m, to 179m, albeit still a new peak. Projections for supply and demand in 2025/26 are little-changed from before, with world import demand seen rising by 2% y/y, chiefly on larger shipments to Asia.
The Council's expectations for rice supply and demand are broadly unchanged across both years, with global output seen advancing to a record in 2025/26. Owing to a fractional upward adjustment to carry-ins, world ending stocks are pegged a touch higher, at 185m t (+3m). Outlooks for trade in 2025 and 2026 are maintained, shaped by demand from buyers in Asia and Africa.
With gains in maize and soyabean fob prices counteracting small losses for wheat and rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by a net 1%.
Mainly because of anticipated bumper maize and wheat harvests, 2025/26 total grains production is forecast to be the largest ever, seen 60m t higher y/y. Including record food (+13m t), feed (+16m) and industrial (+7m) uses, forecast consumption growth of almost 2% is seen slightly faster than average. End-season inventories are projected to be more or less unchanged y/y, at 582m t, including 140m in the major exporters (+9%). World grains trade is projected to climb by 2%, boosted mainly by increased shipments to Asia.
Amid tentative expectations for larger southern hemisphere harvests, world soyabean production is projected 1% higher y/y, at a peak of 428m t, in 2025/26. While availabilities should remain plentiful, a solid y/y gain in utilisation could see carryovers tighten, including in key exporters. After edging up in the current year, global import demand is likely to expand by 2% in 2025/26 as South American suppliers take a bigger share of total volumes.
Global rice output is projected to edge up in 2025/26, chiefly on gains in leading exporters, with a similarly modest increase in uptake (+1%) anticipated, boosted by growing food demand in Africa and Asia. World end-season stocks are anticipated to accumulate, including gains in India. Trade is predicted to reach a record of about 60m t in 2026.
After the previous year’s drop, global dry peas output is predicted to expand solidly in 2025/26, including a record Russian outturn. Total use is expected to climb by 4% on gains in the CIS and North America, while inventories are projected to expand by almost one-fifth y/y, including heavy accumulation in key exporters. Trade is tentatively seen increasing by 4% y/y.
MARKET SUMMARY
The IGC GOI firmed slightly in recent weeks, pulled higher by gains in rowcrop markets.
Weighed by seasonal harvest pressure and a generally favourable supply outlook, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index eased by 1% m/m.
The IGC GOI maize sub-Index gained by a net 4%, buoyed mainly by slow farmer selling in the US and South America.
Against the backdrop of limited buying interest and strong competition between exporters, IGC GOI rice-sub-Index declined by 1% m/m.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was almost 2% higher over the month, with advances at all key origins.