GRAIN REPORT

Where You Can Find The Latest Information On The Grain Trade In New Zealand.

Local Market Update

With the harvest finished growers are now planning for next year. The earlier harvest and generally better weather has meant autumn sowing is well ahead compared to the last few seasons. Although it is still too soon to say whether total area committed to autumn cereals will be up or down.

There continues to be minimal enquiry for grain for prompt deliveries, leaving spot pricing static. However, interest is building for spread deliveries beginning in the spring period, coupled with lower grain yields, forecast lower winter feed yields, continuing dry weather in South Canterbury and expected improvements in the dairy pay-out, means that growers are anticipating a lift in spring pricing.

The quality of both barley and wheat samples, with low test weights and high screenings is a considerable issue this season and has led to a large variation in pricing between higher and lower quality grain.

2020 Harvest contracts for feed and milling wheats are expected to be available soon.

Entry forms for the annual United Wheat Growers competition are now available to fill out when you drop your samples into your local grain and seed merchant or to Ruralco Seed.

This year event is to be held on the 5th of June in Methven.

Ruralco Seed is always looking for all types of grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact Craig Rodgers, John Scott or George Walker at Ruralco Seed. Drop in your sample at any Ruralco Store, or you can contact your Ruralco Representative or the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 RURALNZ (787 256) to arrange sample bags or pick up.

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne


 

Australian Update

Feedgrain Focus: Grazier demand wanes as prices flatten

Prices for feedgrain are showing little movement, with end users now covered out as far as August in a winter market which is shaping up to be very different from last year’s because of greatly reduced grazier demand.

Largely the result of destocking on the slopes and plains of New South Wales, it is expected to eliminate spikes in the market which were the hallmark of last winter’s price movements.

Barlow & Peadon Dubbo principal Andrew Peadon said cattle numbers particularly had dropped as dry conditions continued in many parts of the central west and surrounds.

“It’s a combination of a few factors, with limited surface water and dry dams in some areas, but lack of rain is everything,” Mr Peadon said.

“People are being more severe on their cattle numbers, because once you have a cow and calf, it’s hard to keep feed up to them.

“A ewe and lamb is much more economical to feed.”

Last year, graziers in most parts of inland NSW were paying big money for grain, faba beans, cottonseed, hay and by-products to supplement what little paddock feed they had.

“This year, they’ve cut their numbers back because they’re running out of money, even with good sheep and cattle and wool prices.

“They can’t keep feeding indefinitely.”

Autumn rain has been enough to allow mixed farmers in some districts to plant dual-purpose crops which will alleviate demand for grain for paddock feed into winter.

 

Barley-wheat spread narrows


In feedlot rations throughout eastern Australia, barley has displaced some wheat in rations in a sleepy market in this three-day week.

ADM accumulation manager Michael Vaughan said this settling of the market, which had narrowed the wheat-barley spread to about $15 per tonne in the Brisbane market, was too attractive for many end users to pass up.

“That lift in barley buying is having an effect on wheat consumption,” Mr Vaughan said.

Western and South Australian barley is coming into Victorian and NSW ports as well as Brisbane, where the free-on-truck July market is quoted at $370 per tonne, compared with wheat at $385 per tonne.

In the interior southern NSW market, feed wheat has been trading at $390 per tonne delivered end user, either from localised supplies, or from South Australia, where trains with wheat and barley were continuing to supply railheads as far north as Narrabri.

Trade sources have said some sorghum from northern NSW was making its way by truck and train into end-users from the Riverina to Sydney to Brisbane, with the poultry sector being its main consumer.

Mr Vaughan said prospects for the Central Queensland sorghum crop, particularly north of Emerald, had been improved by recent rain, and that grain produced was likely to be consumed within the region and at points north.

The sorghum market has changed little in recent weeks, and last week was trading at $393 per tonne track Newcastle for April-May, while the delivered Downs market is stuck in the $345-$350 per tonne, and $360-$365 per tonne delivered Brisbane.

 

Variety in Victoria


Malting barley, feed barley, wheat, oats and lupins have all made their way into Victoria by ship from Western Australia in recent weeks, and are supplying mills and maltsters.

Grain from the South Australian Murray-Mallee has also been making its way to end users in the state’s north.

Link Brokering principal Dion Costigan said little volume was trading, as most major end-users appeared to have secured coverage for the coming months.

“Hay stocks are getting much tighter so that’s quietened down too,” Mr Costigan said.

“There’s still quite a bit of hay on farm, but people don’t want to let it go in case they need it themselves.”

Barley delivered Goulburn Valley has been trading at around $360 per tonne, $15-$20 per tonne below wheat, and boat barley coming in via Port Kembla is available in the eastern Riverina at $365-$370 per tonne.

Those feeding sheep in the western Riverina have been paying up to $400 per tonne for barley.

“There are two markets at the moment:  the trade market and the grower market.

“Growers aren’t going to let barley go at $360 per tonne but the trade will.”

Traders said the grower market, where farmers are selling a truckload or two to contacts, had been sitting at a premium to the trade market, where parcels of several thousand tonnes were being booked by major millers.

Feed Wheat Comparison


Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Update

Mainly because of increases for maize in Argentina and Brazil, the forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 is 3 million tonnes higher m/m (month-on-month), at 2,128 million. Consumption is lowered by 5 million tonnes m/m with most of the adjustment for feed and industrial use of maize in the USA. With bigger supply and smaller usage, the outlook for grain stocks is lifted by 8 million tonnes, to 611 million, a drop of 36 million y/y (year-on-year). Trade is placed a little higher m/m, as upward revisions for wheat and maize outweigh cuts for barley and sorghum.

For 2019/20, the projection for grains production is boosted by 2 million tonnes, to 2,178 million, including uprated figures for wheat and maize. Larger opening inventories, higher output and lower consumption boost the forecast for world ending stocks by 13 million tonnes, to 588 million, with those in the major exporters now placed slightly higher y/y.

Tied to improved prospects in South America, the outlook for soyabean output in 2018/19 is raised by 3 million tonnes m/m, to a record of 362 million, a 6% y/y rise. With use unchanged from before, the net increase in supplies is channelled to inventories, seen up by 10 million tonnes y/y. The outlook for production in 2019/20 is lifted by 2 million tonnes m/m, to 361 million. Together with a larger figure for opening stocks, aggregate carryovers are pegged 5 million tonnes higher than in March. The projection of trade is trimmed to 153 million tonnes and would be little-changed y/y.

Reflecting a reduced consumption figure, the forecast for world rice stocks in 2018/19 is 1 million tonnes higher m/m, at 158 million, up 8m y/y, including a modest increase for the major exporters. The 2019 trade outlook is cut but, at 47 million tonnes, remains historically high. The Council’s projections for 2019/20 are mostly maintained from March, with an anticipated solid increase in availabilities absorbed by gains in uptake and inventories, the latter rising by 5 million tonnes y/y. Trade in 2020 is predicted steady m/m, at 48 million tonnes.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) declined by 5% m/m, with the biggest falls for wheat and maize.

 

OVERVIEW

 

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 fell by 13 million tonnes y/y, to 2,128 million, while consumption is expected to climb by a similar amount, to 2,165 million. Total grains stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are forecast to contract by 36 million tonnes, to 611 million, including falls for maize (-26 million), wheat (-6 million) and barley (-2 million). Grains trade is expected to match the season before, as the tenth consecutive rise for maize compensates for smaller shipments of wheat, barley and sorghum.

World total grains production in 2019/20 is projected to climb by 2%, to 2,178 million tonnes, including bigger harvests of wheat (+26 million), maize (+6 million) and barley (+8 million). Despite increased output, overall availabilities will edge only slightly higher owing to the smallest opening stocks in three seasons. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are envisaged to propel total consumption to a new high of 2,201 million tonnes (+2% y/y). Amid record demand and only a minor supply expansion, a third successive depletion of global stocks is predicted, to a five-year low of 588 million tonnes (-23m y/y). Little change in trade is projected as larger wheat shipments are balanced by a fall for maize.

Stemming from a rebound in Argentina, but with other producers threshing bigger crops, 2018/19 world soyabean output is forecast at a record of 362 million tonnes, a 6% y/y gain. With modest consumption growth anticipated, aggregate stocks are seen at a peak of 55m t, on heavy accumulation in the major exporters. While shipments to China are anticipated to fall, other buyers should secure more, leaving global trade only a fraction lower y/y, at 152 million tonnes. The US harvest in 2019/20 may be slightly smaller than in the prior season but, with potential increases elsewhere, world production is predicted to be little-changed y/y, at 361 million tonnes. Amid expectations for gains in feed uptake, total use is seen rising further, although the outlook is highly tentative given policy and demand-side uncertainties in China. Trade is placed at 153 million tonnes, marginally higher y/y.

Global rice production in 2018/19 is forecast to be up by 1% y/y, at a record of 500 million tonnes, including bigger harvests in key exporters and sub-Saharan Africa. Consumption could reach a new high amid ample availabilities and rising populations, while aggregate stocks may expand on gains in India and China. World output in 2019/20 is tentatively seen at a peak of 505 million tonnes as acreage expansion in some Asian producers more than offsets falls in China and the Americas. Amid plentiful supplies, growth in total use and inventories is expected, with trade in 2020 potentially up on demand from buyers in Africa.

 

MARKET SUMMARY

 

Pressured by mostly favourable outlooks for northern hemisphere winter grains and rowcrops in South America, the IGC GOI slumped by 5% m/m, to a more than three-year low.

Owing to ample spot availabilities and broadly favourable new crop prospects, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index fell by 6% m/m.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index tumbled by 6%, to a six-month low, on comfortable US supplies and expectations for large South American surpluses.

With global markets largely stable m/m, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index is unchanged compared to the last GMR.

The IGC GOI soyabean sub-Index declined by 4% from late-March, to its lowest since December 2008, on seasonal harvest pressure and underlying demand constraints.

Meet Our Experts

 

Craig Rodgers

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: Craig.Rodgers@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 495 2029

George Walker

George Walker

SALES & PROCUREMENT CO-ORDINATOR

@: George.Walker@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 340 3557

John Scott

John Scott

GRAIN & SEED CO-ORDINATOR

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

Jack Dudley

Jack Dudley

GRAIN & SEED CO-ORDINATOR

@: Jack.dudley@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 238 9014

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