Local Market Update

 

  • Planting for next seasons crops is well under way with similar areas of grain to last year predicted to be sown. The feed versus milling/malting variety split is still unclear.
  • Flour mill concerns remain about being able to source enough local milling grade grain and will be looking to import significantly more than usual into the South Island to cover shortfall.
  • The drought in Southland is still a major concern, leaving most properties with lower pasture covers than normal. Coupled with lower winter feed yields there may be an increase in demand for brought-in supplements to meet early spring feed demands.
  • The first flour mill has offered milling wheat contracts for the 2023 harvest, with a second mill looking to have an offering early June, pricing around $180 up on last year.
  • The PKE spot price is sitting around $490-$500 per tonne ex store, with high interest in what would normally be “Field Days Specials” pricing in early June for contracted product.
  • Interest from Dairy farmers remains strong, with focus shifting to spring deliveries. The price has yet to firm for this period.
  • Industry buyers are looking to secure grain on a “spread basis“ for 2022.

 

Ruralco are always looking for grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell, please contact the Ruralco Seed team. Drop in your sample at any Ruralco Store, contact your Ruralco Representative, or call the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 787 256 to arrange sample bags or pick up. For queries about free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact the Ruralco Seed Team or request a call back below.

 

 

Request a Call back

 

 

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne*

 

Import Pricing Per Tonne*

*Pricing at 3 June 2022.

Meet Our Experts

 

Craig Rodgers

GROUP MANAGER ON FARM SALES

@: Craig.Rodgers@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 495 2029

 

John Scott

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

 

Kate Waddell

SEED SALES CO-ORDINATOR

@: Kate.Waddell@Ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 238 9014

 

Australian Update

Feedgrain Focus: Prices drop on global signals, sell-side pressure

Source: Written by Lisa Wells for Grain Central

Wheat and barley prices have fallen by up to $22 per tonne in the past week as domestic values factor in the softer global market and sell-side pressure is seen for the first time since sowing started in April.

On the logistics side, trade sources report trucks are a fraction easier to get, and while wet conditions are slowing grain movements in some districts, growers who have finished planting their winter crop now have time to deliver a load or two.

This has eased the squeeze on deliveries which has caused spikes in the Brisbane and Port Adelaide zones especially in recent weeks.

  June 2 May 26
Barley Downs $480 $500
SFW wheat Downs   $495 $505
Sorghum Downs  $398 $395
Barley Melbourne  $455 $475
ASW wheat Melbourne $475 $493
SFW wheat Melbourne $468  $490

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

 

North takes off-spec

Top-grade feedgrain remains difficult to source in the northern market, where consumers are buying downgraded sorghum and barley as well as SFW wheat.

Trader’s report F2 and F3 barley has been selling in reasonable volume, with growers happy to offload lower-spec grain now that global markets appear to be trending down.

While conditions in many paddocks in the north too soggy for sowing of winter crops and harvest of summer ones, rainfall has mostly been 10 millimetres or under and patchy in the past week.

“In the past week to 10 days, there’s been an increase in old-crop selling, and for payment in next financial year,” Knight Commodities broker Gerard Doherty said.

Sorghum 1 has sold steady to higher in the past week to buck the weaker trend, and Mr Doherty said widespread downgrading of the crop left to harvest could well be a contributor.

“Sorghum’s holding, and it doesn’t look like we’re making any more Sorghum 1 after all this wet weather.”

New-crop multigrade wheat contracts for Dec-Jan delivery Brisbane are now sitting at around $500/t for APW, down from $520-$530/t at the peak and attracting some grower interest.

In the nearby market, the rain-induced delay to cotton picking in southern Queensland and northern NSW appears to have switched some trucks back into grain for the next few weeks.

“Cottons backed off with the weather, and it feels like in the past couple of weeks, there are more trucks available; it’s easier to get wheels.”

Delta Ag broker Tom Vanzella said consumers were buying downgraded barley and sorghum provided they hit testweight specs.

“The consumer has been reluctant to look at it, but BAR3 is getting snapped up,” Mr Vanzella said.

Trade sources report F3 barley delivered Downs this week has traded at around $435/t.

“There’s a reasonable amount of grower selling, and they’re looking at international factors. Leading those is the possibility that Ukrainian grain in volume may be able to get to some export customers. There are also a few more trucks moving.”

Mr Vanzella said while international values were weakening, domestic demand and logistics appear unlikely to let prices fall too far.

“The old-crop market is running its own course. Overall, the east-coast feed market should remain relatively firm for old-crop wheat, barley and sorghum, especially if a wet, cold winter increases energy needs.”

South falls as growers reset

While growers in northern NSW and southern Queensland have only been able to plant about 20 per cent of intended winter crop area because of excessive and unseasonal rain, most growers in other parts of Australia have finished planting.

Parts of central and southern NSW have had up to 35mm of rain in the past week, which is slowing up movements of grain off farm, and may prompt the need for resowing.

However, Victorian, and South Australian crops are generally all in, and benefiting from rain of the past week.

“Growers are pretty well done with planting…and the market coming off has sparked their attention,” GeoCommodities broker Brad Knight said. “With consumers, we might see them step up a bit more; they don’t want to miss buying at $40-$50 below where the peak was.”

That could include coverage of some pent-up demand.

“I don’t think there was a lot of business done at the peak of the market. Export markets remain extremely strong for wheat, barley, and canola. The domestic customer realises that if they don’t pay up for it, it will go on a boat.”

Another trader said the southern feedgrain market was finding further support because growers with the ability to take a load or to were choosing pulses over cereals to sell in the nearby.

“There are not buyers there every week for faba beans and lentils, so that’s what they’ll concentrate on if the bids are there. Growers will have time to sell now, and some might be thinking we have seen the top of the market.”

Rail access to NSW ports continues to run at below capacity for bulk grain, with the Narrabri-Moree line closed over winter to allow upgrades for Inland Rail, and the Moss Vale-Unanderra line out of action following rain damage until September.

 

Feed Wheat Comparison

 

 

Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Market Update

Source: International Grains Council

HIGHLIGHTS

The world 2021/22 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is boosted by 3mt m/m (month-on-month), to a record 2,291m, mainly because of an upgrade for maize. With increased consumption, cumulative world ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are seen slightly lower than before. The outlook for global trade (Jul/Jun) is unchanged m/m, at 416mt, down by 10m y/y (year-on-year).

Including sizeable reductions for maize and wheat, the projection for global total grains output in 2022/23 is 24mt below the April report. With forecast consumption lowered by almost the same amount, the world carryout estimate is down by 1mt from before. Mostly because of a reduction for maize, total trade volumes are projected 3mt lower, at 404m, marking a second successive y/y decline.

Reflecting a reduced figure for total use, the forecast for 2021/22 soyabean stocks is lifted by 1mt m/m, still almost one-fifth lower y/y, while traded volumes are also trimmed further, to about 154m (-4% y/y). Uprated outlooks for Brazil, Argentina and China lift the projection for global output in 2022/23 to 387mt (+11% y/y), with the net m/m increase channelled to increased figures for consumption and inventories. Trade is predicted near-unchanged m/m, at 166mt (+8%).

The outlook for world rice supply and demand in 2021/22 is little-changed m/m. The projection for global production in 2022/23 is cut slightly m/m and, due to an uprated figure for total use – linked to anticipated solid feed demand in China – global carryovers are lowered by 3mt m/m. Trade in 2023 (Jan/Dec) is placed 1mt higher, at 51m, unchanged y/y.

Lifted by surging wheat prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbed to a fresh record high in mid-May, before dipping slightly, to end fractionally down m/m.

OVERVIEW

Boosted by record breaking maize and barley harvests, total grains production is forecast 3% higher, at 2,291mt. While consumption will also climb, with y/y gains for food (+2%), feed (+3%) and industrial uses (+2%), overall growth of 2% will fall slightly short of the increase in supply, leading to a modest increase in carryover stocks, to 607mt (+1%). Partly reflecting ongoing restricted shipments by Ukraine, world trade is forecast to contract by 2%, to 416mt.

Smaller wheat, maize and sorghum harvests are projected to limit 2022/23 world total grains production to 2,251mt, down 40m from the year before, but still potentially the second largest ever. With feed uptake curbed by elevated market prices and resultant demand rationing, total consumption is projected to drop by 8mt, to 2,279m, the first y/y contraction since 2015/16. Led by drawdowns in the major exporters, grains stocks are seen 5% lower, at 580mt. Global trade is projected to fall by 3% to 404mt, predominantly on smaller maize and barley volumes.

Global soyabean production in 2021/22 is seen falling by 5% y/y, to 349mt, on a plunge in South American production. With the drop resulting in a contraction in supplies, consumption and inventories are set to retreat, the latter by 18% y/y. World output in 2022/23 is projected to recover strongly, to a record of 387mt (+11%), on potentially heavy crops in the three majors. Uptake is predicted to rebound on rising demand for soyabean products in feed, food, and industrial sectors, while inventories could accumulate. Trade is seen expanding by 8% y/y on bigger shipments to Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas.

World rice trade is seen edging up to a high in 2022 on sizeable deliveries to Africa. Tied to acreage gains in Asia, 2022/23 global production is predicted 1% higher y/y at a record. Underpinned by population growth, food demand is seen pushing up consumption to a fresh high, with uptake for feeding also contributing to gains. With increases in major exporters compensating for reductions elsewhere, world carryovers are seen little-changed y/y. Global trade in 2023 is projected steady, at 51mt, with heavy buying by African importers and China expected to feature.

MARKET SUMMARY

With mixed trends across the main sub-components, the IGC GOI edged fractionally lower m/m, albeit still nearly one-quarter higher compared to a year ago.

With worries about global exportable supplies exacerbated by India's recent export ban announcement, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index spiked to a 14-year high, up by 9% m/m.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index fell by 7% m/m amid seasonal weakness in South America and spill over from recent declines in outside markets.

Led by solid gains in Thailand, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index advanced by 4% over the past month.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index retreated by 4%, weighed at times by profit taking and losses in soya meal, as well as currency gyrations in Brazil and softer external markets.

 
 
 
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