GRAIN REPORT

Where You Can Find The Latest Information On The Grain Trade In New Zealand.

Local Market Update

 

The grain market remains quiet, and prices are static. With the milking season finished, the demand for prompt grain from the dairy sector is very limited. There are some opportunities into feed mills, but these are very price dependent. There is interest from the dairy sector for spring deliveries, however there is still a disparity between buyer and grower pricing the spring feed situation should have a large bearing on which direction this takes.

Champion, Western and Farmers Mill have all come out with 2020 milling contracts. Pricing is similar to last year for Premium wheats but there has been an increase in price offered on softer wheat varieties. As yet there is no information on what the uptake on these has been.

Feed wheat contracts for 2020 Harvest remain around the $400 per tonne delivered mark. Currently there are no major Feed Barley contracts for 2020 harvest.

Autumn/Winter plantings are well underway with some reports having a drop-in area of feed wheats but an increase in milling wheat area.

It is also a good time of year to check storage facilities for pest infestations, with already a few bug problems being detected, the heat at harvest leading to warmer grain than usual contributing to this.

Ruralco Seed is always looking for all types of grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell, please contact Craig Rodgers or John Scott at Ruralco Seed. Drop in your sample at any Ruralco Store, contact, your Ruralco Arable & Pastoral Representative or the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 RURALNZ (787 256) to arrange sample bags or pick up.

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne

Australian Update

Feedgrain focus: First WA new crop booked for Brisbane

New-crop wheat and barley from Western Australia has started to trade into Brisbane to reflect the reality of the poor winter-crop outlook for most of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Trade sources report this has sparked interest from feedlots spread from the Western Downs of southern Queensland to the far north of NSW in pricing grain out of the free-on-truck Brisbane market in January.

“We’re seeing feedlots well covered for now, and some are stepping in and getting cover for new-crop priced on transhipment from WA,” Emerald Toowoomba-based grain trader Doug Murphy said.

WA grain has continued to supply end-use requirements in southern Queensland and northern NSW, and Mr Murphy said the likelihood that this would continue into 2020 has clamped the market’s eye on WA’s growing season.

“In the new-crop market, wheat has softened maybe $10 a tonne on WA rain, and on lower US futures.”

This has narrowed the spread between wheat and barley to around $25-$30 per tonne, with new-crop wheat delivered Downs at around $385 per tonne and F1 barley at $360 per tonne.


Late Downs Planting


Some late planting of cereals has taken place on the Downs for those growers lucky enough to get 25 millimetres or more in the past two weeks.

“The Downs has had some planting activity for those growers that jagged an inch or two, and around Condamine, there are some crops that got off to a good start.

“In northern NSW, it’s still largely dry and needing rain, and grain is going to have to keep coming around from the west and on to the Downs.”

Carpendale Commodities and Transport manager in Toowoomba Andrew Jurgs said after a firm start to the week, the inverse between nearby and new-crop prices had widened.

While prices in Queensland had begun the week firmer, current and new-crop diverged mid-week on the better rain forecast prevailing in WA, with January forward values dipping around $10 per tonne while nearby mostly held.

“There’s plenty of consumer demand in Q3, with white grain enquiry keeping values firm.”

Interstate boat wheat, priced ex Brisbane in the low $400 per tonne, would land between $435 per tonne and $440 per tonne delivered western Downs feedlot.

“Interstate shipments will continue for as long as the delivered markets in Queensland remain the economic option for exporters from WA.”

 

Limited Forward Sales


In the South Australian market, Rural Directions agribusiness consultant James Hillcoat said wheat was trading for prompt delivery to Adelaide end-users at around $330 per tonne, and barley has been changing hands at $313 per tonne.

“Prompt wheat has firmed a bit,” Mr Hillcoat said.

In the new-crop Adelaide market, barley has been trading at around $300 per tonne in limited volume.

“We’re not seeing too many forward bids."

“Liquidity did start to pick up, but rain in WA took the sting out of the market, and activity has slowed down.”

While South Australia appears to have good yield prospects, Mr Hillcoat said grower confidence in forward selling was limited.

“There’s no stored moisture in a lot of areas. They need to have another rainfall under their belts.

“Growers are looking at tight stocks, and remembering (last year’s) wash-outs, and that rally in pricing that caught them off guard.”

Grower and trade selling is trying to pick the peaks in the market, and these are largely being created by concerns about lack of rain in WA as well as South Australia and eastern states.

“If sellers missed the harvest peak, they’re now in a clawback phase.”

Mr Hillcoat said yield prospects for the winter crop across Australia would be better known in the next month, but the market was likely to retain a domestic rather than global focus.

Feed Wheat Comparison


Feed Barley Comparison

 

 

World Update

 

HIGHLIGHTS

The forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 is raised by 5 million tonnes m/m (month-on-month), to 2,142 million, mostly due to upward revisions for maize harvests in South America and South Africa. As consumption is boosted a little from before, the outlook for ending stocks is raised by around 2 million tonnes, to 619 million, a drawdown of 26 million y/y (year-on-year). The figure for trade is 2 million tonnes higher than last time, at 368 million (369 million previous year), mainly linked to larger than predicted maize imports by Canada, the EU, Turkey and China.

The projection for total grains production in 2019/20 is cut by 21 million tonnes m/m, to 2,156 million (+1% y/y), largely owing to a difficult start to the growing season for US maize. Because of revisions for India, the EU and Ukraine, the forecast for wheat output is 3 million tonnes higher m/m, at a record 769 million (+5% y/y). With smaller supplies and a cut in demand (-5 million tonnes, mostly feed/residual), total grains stocks at the end of 2019/20 are placed 14 million smaller m/m, at 588 million (-5% y/y). Most of the m/m change is linked to a tighter outlook for US maize inventories. Trade is 1 million tonnes up m/m as increased forecasts for wheat and maize shipments are partly offset by a reduced outlook for sorghum.

The 2018/19 world soyabean production estimate is pegged at a record of 363 million tonnes. Since total use is trimmed m/m, stocks are forecast marginally higher, at a peak of 54 million tonnes, a one-quarter y/y rise. Predicted broadly steady from May, trade is set to fall by 1% y/y. Mainly on a downgrade for the US, where crop weather has been very challenging, global output in 2019/20 is tentatively seen 9 million tonnes lower m/m, at 349 million, down by 4% y/y. The m/m drop in supplies is largely channelled to a reduced outlook for inventories; at 45 million tonnes, carryovers are projected to contract by one-fifth y/y, albeit still slightly above average. Trade is placed at 152 million tonnes, up slightly y/y.

The Council’s forecasts for rice supply and demand in 2018/19 are little-changed from before. Trade is seen at 46 million tonnes, with reductions for key exporters contrasting with an upgrade for China’s shipments, which are being underpinned by African demand for long-grain varieties. The projection of global trade in 2020 is down slightly m/m, at 47 million tonnes (+1m y/y), on lower expectations for China’s purchases.

Bolstered by uncertainties about production prospects in some regions, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased by 2% since the last GMR, mainly on gains in average export prices for maize (+6%) and wheat (+2%).


OVERVIEW

At 2,142 million tonnes, world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 is expected to marginally exceed the outturn of the year before, and despite lower opening stocks, overall supplies are estimated to be only slightly tighter y/y. Nevertheless, as consumption continues to grow, another drawdown of carryover stocks is envisaged, to a three-year low of 619 million tonnes. Total grains trade is placed a fraction smaller y/y as reduced shipments of wheat, barley, sorghum and oats outweigh increased volumes of maize and rye.

Global total grains production in 2019/20 is projected to expand by 1%, to 2,156 million tonnes. The increased outturn does not compensate for tighter opening stocks and overall supply is projected to be the least in four seasons. At the end of 2019/20, total grains stocks are predicted to contract for a third consecutive season, to a five-year low of 588 million tonnes, with the rate of decline accelerating to 31 million y/y (26 million previous year), wholly owing to a third successive decline for maize (-48 million).

These are seen dropping to a six-year low, with most of the fall in China (-24 million tonnes) and the USA (-18 million). Wheat stocks could reach a record level, including build-ups in China and India. Some recovery in wheat carryovers is anticipated in the major exporters, although their aggregate total is forecast to remain below the five-year average. Total grains trade is projected at an all-time high, as increased shipments of wheat and barley offset the first fall in maize trade in 11 years.

With key producers threshing bumper crops, global soyabean output is pegged at a peak of 363 million tonnes in 2018/19, a 6% y/y gain. However, only marginal growth in uptake is likely as firmer demand in some markets is mostly outweighed by a contraction in China – stemming from the dual effects of African swine fever and a prolonged trade dispute with the US. Consequently, stocks are set to accumulate to a record of 54 million tonnes, including a more than doubling in the US.

The 2019/20 supply and demand outlook is tentative. Nevertheless, world output is seen declining by 4% y/y as a difficult growing season results in a significantly reduced US outturn. Accordingly, inventories are predicted to tighten, mainly on a contraction in the major exporters, albeit remaining above average. Trade is projected to edge up, but prospects surrounding China’s needs remain uncertain.


Gains in key exporters, particularly in India where a record main crop was cut, underpinned 2018/19 rice production at a new peak of 499 million tonnes. Despite expanded total use, global stocks are likely to accumulate, including nominal growth in China. In 2019/20, further gains in Asia may see output rise to a fresh high, while ample availabilities and expanding populations could boost consumption. World trade in 2020 is predicted to rise as stronger demand from sub-Saharan Africa offsets smaller purchases by Asian importers, such as China.


MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI strengthened for a third successive month, increasing by 2% from the May GMR, as various weather worries contributed to gains in maize, soyabeans, wheat and rice export prices.

Underpinned mainly by weather threats to crops in North America, the EU and the Black Sea region, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by a net 2% m/m.

Amid deepening worries about US production prospects, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index raced to a 13-month high, up by 6% compared to late-May.

The IGC GOI rice sub-Index firmed by 1% on concerns about unfavourable conditions for crops in Thailand and the USA.

With support stemming from excessively wet US planting weather, the IGC GOI soyabean sub-Index gained by 1% over the past month.

 



Meet Our Experts

 

Craig Rodgers

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: Craig.Rodgers@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 495 2029

George Walker

George Walker

SALES & PROCUREMENT CO-ORDINATOR

@: George.Walker@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 340 3557

John Scott

John Scott

GRAIN & SEED CO-ORDINATOR

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

Jack Dudley

Jack Dudley

GRAIN & SEED CO-ORDINATOR

@: Jack.dudley@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 238 9014

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