After a reasonably late planting, unseasonably warm weather is seeing crops in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland bounce out of the ground.

In the south also, minimum temperatures remain unusually high for mid-winter, with only one or two light frosts recorded to date. Yield potential has therefore continued to climb, and growers are selling a load here and there as they hope for a lift in bids, and fear a blow from the declared El Niño come spring.

Consumer demand remains minimal in the north, with most well covered from volume buying done in the rally ahead of opening rain in mid-May. Likewise, the grower is in no hurry to quit substantial wheat stocks still held on farm, despite the new financial year rolling around this week. “It’s dead; the grower’s price ideas and the consumer’s are a long way apart,” one trade source said.

“Most consumers are pretty comfortable with where they are in terms of coverage.”

Planting of winter crop is still taking place on the north-west plains of NSW, but has otherwise finished, and mild conditions have seen crops germinate quickly.

Growers are now looking at top-dressing with product bought in the falling urea market, but are not overdoing it, as they are concerned El Niño could turn off the tap.

However, this week bucked the long-term outlook by delivering some handy falls in northern NSW, including: Gunnedah 30mm; Moree 11mm; Narrabri 24mm; Walgett 48mm.“If we get to the end of July with this unbelievably warm weather continuing, and it stops raining, the crop could be in trouble; growers are aware of that.”

One trade source said stabilised diesel prices at around their February levels, and well below the peaks seen in intervening months, have encouraged growers to look at delivered prices for grain. “Some growers were not selling delivered because fuel was so expensive.”

Barley prices have now dropped to just below those for ASW wheat, and may well stay that way, with the north seen as fully planted on barley, but not on wheat. “Anyone that doesn’t have wheat in by now will hold off for sorghum,” another source said.

New-crop barley traded at $370/t delivered Downs January, and at an inverse to the prompt market, whereas wheat into new-crop slots appears to be trading at carry.

Minimum temperatures for the week to June 30 show the tiny proportion of the grainbelt where temperatures have dropped below zero. Image: Bureau of Meteorology

More rain has fallen in the past week on many paddocks from central NSW to south-west Victoria to South Australia. In NSW, registrations in the week to 9am today include: Condobolin 28mm; Deniliquin 26mm; Parkes 44mm; Nevertire 49mm; Temora 49mm, and Young 39mm. In Vic, registrations include: Birchip 35mm; Dimboola 11mm; Nhill 17mm; Ouyen 31mm, and Rupanyup and Woomelang 27mm.

In SA, the rain was equally widespread, and higher registrations include: Buckleboo 21mm; Clare 16mm; Coulta 38mm; Cummins 27mm; Maitland 26mm; Pinnaroo 18mm, and Snowtown North 19mm.

Pinion Advisory broker Brad Knight said growers have been selling small volumes. “They’re engaging in a methodical way,” Mr Knight said.

Conditions across much of Vic’s grain-growing area are wet, and even waterlogged in places. “It’s feeling like a normal winter,” Mr Knight said of the rainfall.

What is out of the ordinary is the warmth, with only one or two light frosts recorded to date in SA and eastern states. If the Vic and SA crops live up to expectations, most definitely on the cards if they are not impacted by frost or a hot spring, growers will need to turn their attention to shifting some of the on-farm stocks.

Lentils, currently under pressure from what likes being bumper Australian and Canadian crops, and wheat are the holds. “We think there’s a lot of wheat out there, barley not so much,” one trader said.

The impact of Europe’s fiercely hot June may have an impact on the continent’s and the UK’s malting barley production, which could prove supportive for Australian values.

Upward adjustments to maize crops in India, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Paraguay account for nearly all of this month’s 12m t increase in the world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast for 2025/26. Figures for consumption, ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) and trade are also boosted m/m (month-on-month).

Owing to upgraded outlooks for maize, barley and wheat, the global crop projection for 2026/27 is lifted by 13m t from May. An El Niño event is now underway and predicted to strengthen through the second half of the year. While there is an increased chance of yield variability, especially for the next southern hemisphere harvests, the impact remains uncertain at this stage. There are concerns too, about fertiliser affordability, but with a more recent fall in input prices offering some relief. Projected consumption is hiked by 11m t from before, with the end-season carryover increased by 3m. Including cuts for wheat and barley, trade is revised 1m t lower, potentially 15m down y/y (year-on-year).

The forecast for soyabean trade in 2025/26 is trimmed slightly but, at 186m t (+1%), would still be a new peak on firmer Asian demand. Looking ahead to 2026/27, the Council's expectations for world supply and demand are little-changed from May, with output, uptake and trade seen increasing to respective new highs.

Due to an upgrade for India, the 2025/26 world rice production estimate is lifted m/m, to a record of 546m t (+1%). A strong El Niño event could adversely affect 2026/27 yields in key Asian producers, with global output seen little-changed y/y. The projection for trade in 2027 is maintained at a peak of 62m t (+4%).

Weighed by monthly declines in maize, wheat and soyabean export quotations, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased by a net 5%, still 4% higher y/y.

With gains chiefly for maize and wheat, global total grains production, consumption and trade are expected to reach all-time highs in 2025/26. Carryover stocks will also build, placed 53m t higher y/y.

Because of reduced area and anticipated poorer average yields, grains production is projected to fall by 2% in 2026/27, to 2,426m t. Total uptake is pegged at 2,448m t, up by 1% y/y, with gains mainly for food and industrial uses. End-season inventories are predicted to tighten to 618m t (-3%), more or less matching the prior five-year average. At 445m t, world trade is forecast to stay at a high level, down by 3% y/y, led by smaller wheat and barley flows.

Boosted by Asian requirements, soyabean trade is seen edging up to a peak in 2025/26, with a heavy increase in exports from South American origins more than compensating for a marked fall in US dispatches. On the basis of acreage gains and trend yields, world production is projected at a record in 2026/27 (+3%). Given the backdrop of sizeable availabilities, utilisation is predicted at a fresh high, but with inventories likely to tighten. Global import demand is anticipated to expand by 2% y/y.

Global rice output in 2026/27 is seen broadly unchanged y/y as a marginal rise in Indian production contrasts with declines elsewhere. World consumption is set to expand again, by 1% y/y, while aggregate end-season inventories are projected to gain, with Indian reserves moving close to 60m t. Trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is placed at a record of 62m t (+4%), boosted by African needs.

After a marked expansion in the prior year, global lentils output could fall in 2026/27 on a pullback in acreage and reduced yields. Nevertheless, given prospects for plentiful availabilities, global use and reserves are seen growing further. Trade is tentatively projected to hold steady in 2027, with volumes shaped by Asian demand.

Over the past five weeks, average maize, wheat and soyabean export values weakened, partly on a comfortable supply outlook, but with overspill too, from outside markets. While firmer rice quotations provided some partial offsetting, the IGC GOI dropped by a net 5%.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index moved to a two-month low, down by 7%. North American markets were especially soft on broader competitiveness concerns and building US harvest pressure.

Weighed by a favourable early-season US cropping conditions and a seasonal southern hemisphere supply influx, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index retreated by 8% m/m.

The IGC GOI rice sub-Index advanced by a net 5%, bolstered predominantly by solid gains in Thailand and Pakistan, where nearby supplies have tightened.

Reflecting softer fob prices in the US and Argentina, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was 5% lower overall. The downside was linked to falling energy markets and generally favourable Midwest crop weather.