Temperatures are forecast to exceed 30 degrees Celsius over much of the eastern and South Australian grain belt early next week, which will increase moisture stress on filling crops.

Central Qld’s maximum temperatures are forecast to exceed 30 degrees every day in the coming week, and 35 degrees on some, which will accelerate the ripening of wheat and chickpea crops, and harvest activity. 

Hot and dry weather is also expected in Qld’s Maranoa and western Downs, as well as northern NSW, where early barley crops will be harvested in the next week or two.

Following some volume forward sales in recent weeks from growers with big carry-out, nearby domestic demand for barley is limited.

“It’s hard to find homes for barley now,” one trade source said.

Word is that barley’s discount to wheat is seen as too narrow to encourage feedlots to switch to barley to feed over the summer months, as is the usual practice.

“We have barley in long-fed rations, but the price differential is… telling me to maximise wheat and have less barley. “

Barley is currently around 94 percent the price of wheat, above the lotfeeders’ rule of thumb to shift to full inclusion when it is around 91-92pc the price of wheat.

Some growers are cutting barley for silage and getting 10-12t/ha and up to 15t/ha in places for sale to feedlots at around $85-$90/t, while oaten hay is trading at around $375/t, roughly $75/t below where it was this time last year.

The depressed chickpea market is yet to make cereals shape up as the cash sale of choice for northern growers, and growers in the north and south are either planning to store on farm, or warehouse for free until June 30 with bulk-handlers.

In South Australia’s Mid North, AW Vater & Co principal trader Kim Vater said crops are “going backwards” ahead of forecast hot and windy weather.

“Around home, crops looked fantastic five weeks ago; now leaves are browning, and I reckon there’ll be a bit of hay cut soon if it doesn’t rain,” Mr Vater said.  “There’s no subsoil moisture, but there is some biomass.”

Mr Vater said the question now was how many paddocks to cut for hay to replenish reserves depleted after last year’s drought. 

“This year, we have some biomass; this time last year, we didn’t have anything to cut for hay.” 

Feedmills in the Adelaide region are bidding around $310/t for wheat and $290/t for barley, and in no rush to buy with reasonable crops expected in SA’s South East, and into the Victorian Wimmera. “No-one’s buying at the moment.

“That market’s stagnant, but if we get an inch of rain, it will soften things.” 

Warm and dry weather and localised frost last month have impacted crops in eastern and South Australia, including this crop in the Griffith district of NSW photographed on Monday. Photo: Barry Haskins

In the Riverina, Peters Commodities trader Peter Gerhardy said crops were “in desperate need of rain”.

“There’s no doubt crops are going backwards,” Mr Gerhardy said.

“Decisions are being made now by growers as to whether to cut for hay.”

Crops with sufficient biomass could become hay for growers to store, value-add through their own livestock, or sell for cash. “They might cut 4.5-5t/ha, and they might get $300/t for hay; that’s more than they’ll get for grain by area.”

On-farm bids for barley are currently sitting at around $250-$260/t, close to a break-even figure at best when input costs are taken into account. “The delivered market and where the grower is are miles apart.

“There’s not a lot of active selling by growers; they’re happy to sit it out.”

Mr Gerhardy said canola at a touch above $800/t delivered depot looked like being the cash sell for the Riverina grower, even if yields come in at a below-average 2t/ha. Growers across the entire southern region are hoping for 20mm at least to finish crops, and avert the potential of high screenings and low testweights discounting grain value.

In pockets of NSW, Vic and SA, some cereal crops are though to have lost around one third of their yield potential after being top-dressed with urea, and not getting enough rain to maximise inputs.

“When you’ve got late crops, you’ve got to have a late spring; what we have is a bob-tail spring.”

Carry-out from last season means Victoria, NSW and Qld all have considerable stocks in bunkers and silos on farm, and at bulk-handling sites. “The consumer is sitting back and buying hand to mouth.”

Led by upward revisions for wheat and barley, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2025/26 is boosted by 8m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,412m, up by 4% y/y (year-on-year). Despite unusually small carry-in stocks, the record crop will lift total supply above 3,000m t for the first time ever. The projection for total consumption is 4m t higher m/m, at 2,395m, mostly on an uprated feed estimate (wheat and maize). Taking into account larger than previously estimated opening stocks, the figure for world carryover inventories (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is raised by 9m t m/m, to 606m. Owing to projected stronger wheat import demand, the Council's trade estimate is lifted for a second month in a row, to 438m t.

Tied to recent larger than anticipated shipments from South American origins, soyabean trade in 2024/25 (Oct/Sep) is forecast 2m t higher m/m. Owing to marginal adjustments, the 2025/26 world output projection is trimmed by 1m t m/m. With consumption seen near-unchanged from previously, carryovers are cut by 2m t. Expectations for trade are raised to a peak of 185m t (+2%).

The Council’s outlook for world rice production in 2025/26 is unchanged m/m but, due to elevated carry-in stocks, supplies are lifted from previously. Together with a marginal downgrading of consumption, this feeds through to a 3m t m/m increase in carryovers, pegged at an all-time high. Trade is projected steady m/m, at around 60m t (+2%).

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was little-changed compared to last month's GMR, down by 4% y/y.

Total grains production is forecast to rise by 87m t in 2025/26, to an all-time high of 2,412m, with increases for all crops, barring rye. Uptake is also predicted to climb to a fresh record, up by 50m t, to 2,395m, including gains for food, feed and industrial uses. World stocks of grains are projected to expand by 17m t to 606m, still slightly short of the prior five-year average, including some increase in maize and barley inventories. Trade (Jul/Jun) in grains is expected to reach 438m t, up by 15m y/y and potentially the second highest on record.

Global soyabean production is forecast broadly steady y/y in 2025/26, at 429m t, as gains in South America compensate for falls elsewhere. Total use is seen advancing by 3% y/y as increased demand for soya derivatives across feed, food and industrial segments boosts processing to a peak. After the prior year’s solid gain, inventories could tighten, including in the three majors. Trade is predicted at a record on firmer Asian interest.

Building on the prior year’s gains, global rice supplies are seen at a fresh record in 2025/26, with the population trend expected to boost uptake to a new peak. Inventories are projected to build, with major exporters’ reserves seen at a high of 58m t, including 50m in India. Trade in 2026 is predicted to rise by 2% y/y, with India accounting for 40% of overall flows.

Global chickpeas output is projected to expand for a second consecutive year in 2025/26 as leading growers respond to growing local and international demand. With heavy outturns ensuring ample availabilities, aggregate end-season reserves are seen rising across the forecast period. After retreating slightly in the prior year, trade is seen edging up in 2026.

With mixed movements across the various components, the IGC GOI held broadly unchanged m/m.

Owing to strength in North American export prices, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index edged higher, bouncing from a five-year low in early September.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index declined by 2%. The drop was mostly technical, as the inclusion of cheaper, new crop Ukrainian quotations more than offset gains in US and South American prices.

Weighed primarily by declines in quotations in India and Vietnam, the IGC GOI rice-sub-Index eased by 1% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index gained modestly over the past month. US fob prices rose on recent suboptimal cropping weather, while Brazilian values worked higher on solid export interest.