Prices for wheat and barley have firmed in the northern region as consumers look to fill slots into January and beyond.

In the south, ongoing showers and mostly cool weather, with more on the forecast, have made for a painfully slow start to the wheat harvest, and values have lifted accordingly. 

On export, southern Australian barley is being loaded for destinations including China and the Middle East, while chickpeas are populating the northern shipping schedules.

Procurement of cottonseed for nearby feed requirements has virtually stopped, with the prompt market at around $600/t delivered, compared with new-crop available out of the Gwydir Valley at $440-$460/t gin spread.

“Cottonseed is the dearest byproduct in the world,” Downs-based trader Brad Taylor said.

Feedlots are chasing prompt barley, and bids are up by around $7/t from last week to indicate shorts are still in the market.

As is often the case in the lead-in to summer, feedlots have changed their base grain from wheat to barley, the preferred inclusion for the hot-weather ration.

Knight Commodities Goondiwindi-based broker Gerard Doherty said the prompt barley market has jumped $30-$40/t since harvest started.

“At harvest, we were down to $280-$285; now we’re at $320 Downs, there’s good activity; we were adamant we’d see better numbers on barley.”

Rather than a rally in international values, the lift has come from some consumers sitting on their hands as the southern Queensland harvest came and went.

“I’m starting to get the vibe the pre-Christmas job has been engaged, but for January, there’s some appetite there for sure.”

Mr Doherty said wheat demand has been more consistent.

Chickpeas values have levelled at $640-$645/t delivered Brisbane, and some growers are meeting the market to get truckloads on to cargoes due to load prior to Christmas.

On sorghum, limited amounts of current crop remain unsold, and new-crop prospects have improved with the run of storms this week, which has brought some welcome rain, but also strong and in some cases damaging winds.

“Before this rain, sorghum on the Downs was looking touch and go.

“Yield prospects for spring sorghum have improved…and we should be pushing up to an average crop size.”

Higher rainfall amounts in Qld in the week to 9am today include: Dalby 91mm; Felton 100mm; Jondaryan 48mm; Hannaford 69mm; Macalister 22mm; Miles 29mm; Oakey 67mm, and Springsure 29mm.

In northern New South Wales, amounts include: Coonamble 8mm; Moree 76mm; Narrabri 18mm; Tamworth 15mm, and Warialda 30mm.

Mostly warm to hot weather in NSW has allowed significant harvest progress to be made in the past week.

Rainfall registrations in the week to today in the southern half of NSW include: Cootamundra 12mm; Cowra 28mm; Forbes 27mm; Grenfell 37mm; Temora 41mm, West Wyalong 35mm, and Young 45mm.

Much of NSW’s canola has been harvested, and Peters Commodities trader Peter Gerhardy said many farms on the plains north and west of West Wyalong were “on the home stretch, if not done” for harvest all up.

While some crops on the inner slopes of southern and south-central NSW are on track for above-average yields, the reverse is true for the bulk of crops on the outer slopes and plains.

As one grower said to me yesterday: It’s amazing how much country you can get over at 3t/ha and not 6t/ha,” Mr Gerhardy said.

In two weeks, we should be just about done if the weather is favourable.”

Wheat and barley quality is widely variable across the southern half of NSW, with HPS1 segregations open at some sites to take wheat of up to 25-percent screenings and minimum 11.5pc protein.

“In other areas, it’s all ASW; it’s an amazing season.

“It’s the good, the bad, and the ugly.”

Mr Gerhardy said barley harvested so far has “shaped up pretty well”, although some samples have graded as low as BAR4, with test weights as light as 50-53kg per hectolitre, and screenings of up to 30pc.

He said southern wheat and barley markets have gained $5-$10/t since November 12, largely because of growers’ opting to store on farm or warehouse, and also the late harvest.

“Growers are not in a hurry to sell; they’ve got a free warehousing opportunity, and they’ve got a rising market.”

Ahead of showers forecast for coming days, harvest is going full tilt in Victoria in mostly mild to cool conditions.

“The market’s $4-$5 firmer since the start of harvest because of the delay,” one trader said.

“There’s been a lack of consistent harvest weather, and domestic consumers are still chasing the headers to fill November-December positions.”

Pinion Advisory Horsham-based broker Andy Brown said some consumers were getting aggressive on wheat as weather-related harvest delays drag on.

"They’re wanting ASW, but what’s coming off in the Mallee is APW and above,” Mr Brown said.

"They have to pay AP or H2 prices because ASW’s just not around.”

Tat is expected to change as the wheat harvest gets going in the Mallee and Western District, where late rain has built yield and may well have diluted protein.

The production forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) is revised 5m t higher this month, to a record 2,430m, including increases for wheat, maize and barley. Harvests have so far been better than expected, with projections revised higher in consecutive reports since August. Total grains demand is set to rise by 2% y/y (year-on-year), with growth in feed and food use outpacing last season and the five-year average. With a substantial surplus expected, end season stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are expected to rise y/y, pegged 1m t more m/m (month-on-month), at 619m. Tied primarily to an upgraded outlook for sorghum, the global trade forecast is lifted by 3m t, to 442m.

Reflecting marginal adjustments across a number of producers, world soyabean output in 2025/26 is forecast 2m t lower m/m, at 426m (-1%), still the second largest on record. With the projection for consumption near-unchanged from before, global end-season carryovers are lowered by 2m t m/m; within the total, major exporters' reserves are predicted broadly steady y/y. The outlook for trade is maintained at 187m t (+2%).

With a marginally upgraded production figure contrasting a downgrade to expectations for total use, world rice inventories in 2025/26 are seen 2m t higher m/m, at 189m (+2%). The outlook for global import demand in 2026 is pegged fractionally up from October at a record of 61m t (+4%).

After slumping to a five-year low at the end of September, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) subsequently rebounded, recently climbing to a 12-month peak.

At 2,430m t, world total grains output is forecast to rise by 5% in 2025/26, with y/y increases for all grains. The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are envisaged to push total consumption to a new high of 2,400m t (+2%). Global stocks of grains are set to build for the first time since 2021/22, placed 5% higher y/y, at 619m t, led by a marked upturn in exporter inventories. After falling last year, trade will grow again, seen totalling 442m t (+4%).

World soyabean output is forecast at around 426m t, representing a slight y/y contraction but well ahead of the recent average, including a potentially record outturn in Brazil. With consumption seen at a new peak on gains in Asia and the Americas in particular, inventories could tighten, by around 5m t y/y; within the total, major exporters' reserves are predicted at 21m t (-1%). Again boosted by Asian buying, trade is projected at a high of 187m t (+2%).

Global rice output is forecast fractionally higher y/y in 2025/26, bolstered by modest gains in key exporters. Against the backdrop of heavy supplies, world uptake is seen climbing by 1% on food sector gains, while combined end-season reserves are set to rise, including in the five majors. Trade could increase further in 2026 (+4%) on solid interest from importers in Asia and Africa.

In the Council’s first formal supply and demand outlook, forecasts for dry beans production and consumption in 2025/26 are seen little-changed y/y, with fundamentals largely shaped by developments in Asia, notably India. After expanding solidly in the prior year, trade is predicted to contract slightly in 2026, but with Chinese arrivals likely to continue to trend up. Separately, trade in all pulses is forecast to decline by 8% y/y in 2025, linked to softer demand for dry peas and lentils.

Led by advances in soyabeans, but with average wheat and maize fob prices also stronger, the IGC GOI notched a 4% monthly gain.

Mainly because of solid increases in the US and Canada, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by 3% m/m, assessed 2% lower compared to a year ago.

Reflecting overall robust demand and export capacity constraints, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index strengthened by 3% over the past month.

The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index declined by 1% m/m, recently touching an eight-year low, on generally slack export activity and seasonal pressure.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index surged to a near-18 month high, gaining by a net 7%. There was an especially marked uplift in the US, tied to hopes for a resumption of Chinese demand.