Last Modified 11/2/26 17:35 PM

2 day forecast

Mostly fine and sunny Thursday with some mist patches early and some high cloud late in the day. Breezy northeast winds in the afternoon.

Warm northerlies freshening on Friday with increasing high cloud. A period of showers and briefly strong cold southwesterlies spreading north late in the day.

12 day forecast

Fine on Saturday with sunny periods and some cloud; moderate northeasterlies.

Cloudy on Sunday and Monday with a few showers possible at times, mostly near the coast; cooler southwesterly winds.

Mostly fine and sunny next Tuesday to Thursday with moderate northeasterlies.

Here's your six-week Canterbury weather outlook.

First half (11–25 Feb): High pressure dominates. Warm and dry for Canterbury — expect below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and nor'wester heat risk. Christchurch could see 28–30°C+ spikes. No current drought conditions in Canterbury (soils are in good shape entering this period).

Middle third (late Feb – early Mar): The critical transition window. Model guidance shows a gap in the high-pressure belt forming, and if a new MJO orbit initiates (as ECMWF suggests), tropical/subtropical rain risk increases from late February. This is the period with the highest forecast uncertainty.

Second half (8–25 Mar): Near-normal rainfall, but event-driven. The tropical cyclone season peaks, and a single northern rain event could deliver the bulk of March's total. ENSO-neutral will be firmly established by then, removing the La Niña anticyclonic bias.

Key agricultural takeaway: Dryland pastures will dry out through the first half — the timing of the expected March rainfall will determine whether the autumn feed gap is manageable or severe. Irrigated operations are well-placed. Arable crops should aim to advance harvest where possible before March's unsettled potential. Waipara vineyards have ideal ripening conditions now but should watch for late-season rain risk.

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