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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 20/6/26 18:10 PM

3-Day Rainfall spread (risk of rain, likely range)
Location	Sun 21 Jun			Mon 22 Jun			Tue 23 Jun
	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High
Culverden	100%	4.2	14.3	12%	0.0	1.1	2%	0.0	0.1
Rangiora	96%	1.5	8.7	4%	0.0	0.4	2%	0.0	0.0
Darfield	96%	1.2	7.6	6%	0.0	0.1	2%	0.0	0.2
Ashburton	88%	0.9	7.6	0%	0.0	0.0	4%	0.0	0.0
Methven	90%	1.0	7.5	2%	0.0	0.0	4%	0.0	0.0
Hinds	88%	0.9	7.6	0%	0.0	0.0	4%	0.0	0.0
Temuka	92%	1.1	7.3	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0

Sunday morning sees light southerly winds across the region following the overnight change. Grey skies persist with occasional showers, mainly across the coastal areas and Kaikōura where 10mm is likely during the afternoon. Skies clear from the south during the evening, with cloud breaking on the plains and the Mackenzie. Ground frost develops overnight on the inland plains, with temperatures falling to 1 to 3°C at Darfield and Lincoln.

Monday is fine and settled. A hard frost forms overnight Sunday into Monday at Culverden and in the Mackenzie Basin, with ground frost widespread on the plains. Light northeasterly winds develop during the afternoon, extending across the full width of the plains to the foothills by evening. Temperatures reach 10 to 12°C under clear skies.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Saturday 20 June 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Sunday	Light SSE, → NNW evening, showers	8–12	Ground	—
Monday	Light NE, → ENE evening, fine	9–13	Hard (Culverden, Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Tuesday	Light NE	9–12	Hard (Culverden, Lincoln)	—
Wednesday	Moderate SW change, → WSW evening, heavy rain	8–13	Ground inland	Snow Arthur's Pass
Thursday	Fresh SW change, heavy rain	3–9	Ground inland	Damaging gusts 107 km/h Akaroa · Snow to 500m
Friday	Moderate SW change, heavy rain	5–10	Ground inland	Gusts 85 km/h Akaroa · Snow to 500m
Next Saturday–Next Monday	Moderate SW change, showers	5–10	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Gusts 75 km/h Akaroa · Snow Arthur's Pass

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Culverden	43 mm expected, likely 36–53 mm	+29 to +47 mm surplus — comfortable
Darfield	43 mm expected, likely 32–51 mm	+25 to +43 mm surplus — comfortable
Rangiora	40 mm expected, likely 26–49 mm	+18 to +42 mm surplus — comfortable
Methven	36 mm expected, likely 27–45 mm	+20 to +38 mm surplus — comfortable
Ashburton	32 mm expected, likely 25–38 mm	+17 to +30 mm surplus — comfortable
Hinds	32 mm expected, likely 25–38 mm	+17 to +30 mm surplus — comfortable
Temuka	26 mm expected, likely 19–36 mm	+12 to +29 mm surplus — comfortable

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Tuesday remains fine with a persistent northeasterly flow across the plains. Hard frost develops overnight at Culverden, Lincoln, and Ashburton, with temperatures falling below zero in sheltered inland areas. Light winds and variable cloud through the day with highs around 10°C.

Wednesday brings a significant weather change. Rain develops across the plains from early morning, becoming heavy through the afternoon with 10 to 15mm widespread and over 35mm at Banks Peninsula. A westerly change moves through during the evening at Ashburton, Rangiora, and Lincoln. Fresh southwesterly winds develop with gusts to 55 km/h. Snow is likely at Arthur's Pass and Lewis Pass with accumulations around 10cm. Lindis Pass may also see snow. Temperatures remain in single figures.

Thursday is a cold, wet, and windy day. A strong sou'west change persists with sharp gusts to 85 km/h across the plains and damaging gusts exceeding 100 km/h at Akaroa. Heavy rain continues with 50 to 70mm expected at Christchurch, Lincoln, and Darfield. The foothills at Methven receive significant snow accumulation around 13cm as the freezing level drops. Wider snow risk carries a real chance — around 46% on the hills and roughly 29% on the plains — and that signal has been firming across recent forecast runs, up from around 18% just a few days ago (subscribe to THE WHITE STUFF for regular updates). Arthur's Pass and Lewis Pass remain affected with further snow. Temperatures struggle to reach 5°C at the foothills.

Friday sees the sou'west flow continuing with further rain, though easing from Thursday's totals. Gusts remain sharp to 85 km/h at Banks Peninsula. Snow continues at the alpine passes. Temperatures remain cold, reaching only 5 to 8°C on the plains.

Confidence decreases from next Saturday — the following is indicative only.

Next Saturday sees the sou'west flow easing with showers becoming isolated. Hard frost develops in the Mackenzie Basin overnight. Lewis Pass continues to receive snow.

Next Sunday and next Monday bring settled conditions with hard frosts forming overnight at inland locations. A northeasterly flow develops across the mid-plains by Monday. Fine weather returns with temperatures slowly recovering to near 10°C.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET₀ (mm/day)
Location	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Mean
Culverden	2.05	0.33	0.71	0.77	0.33	0.30	0.21	0.35	0.56	0.66	0.63
Rangiora	2.46	0.30	0.74	0.69	0.42	0.27	0.30	0.46	0.56	0.74	0.69
Darfield	1.71	0.32	0.76	0.75	0.27	0.15	0.27	0.34	0.42	0.68	0.57
Ashburton	1.35	0.48	0.85	0.71	0.38	0.38	0.35	0.37	0.28	0.62	0.58
Methven	0.76	0.30	0.76	0.72	0.29	0.22	0.33	0.32	0.31	0.64	0.47
Hinds	1.42	0.57	0.87	0.71	0.37	0.71	0.64	0.44	0.29	0.61	0.66
Temuka	0.85	0.69	0.72	0.67	0.37	0.81	0.99	0.41	0.28	0.55	0.63

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Total
Culverden	18.1	2.8	0.0	0.0	7.0	22.0	30.7	7.5	0.0	0.0	88.1
Rangiora	7.2	7.4	0.0	0.0	5.4	48.1	35.3	4.8	0.0	0.0	108.2
Darfield	9.4	1.6	0.0	0.0	10.0	60.2	43.2	4.2	0.6	0.0	129.2
Ashburton	9.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	6.0	50.7	22.2	3.9	0.0	0.0	96.0
Methven	17.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	7.8	49.4	24.6	5.8	0.9	0.0	108.5
Hinds	7.2	2.8	0.0	0.0	4.8	46.4	16.8	4.9	1.2	0.0	84.1
Temuka	6.5	1.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	27.7	5.3	2.5	2.4	0.0	48.4

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Final
Culverden	+16.1	+18.5	+17.8	+17.0	+23.7	+45.4	+75.9	+83.0	+82.5	+81.8	+81.8
Rangiora	+4.7	+11.8	+11.1	+10.4	+15.4	+63.2	+98.2	+102.6	+102.0	+101.3	+101.3
Darfield	+7.7	+9.0	+8.2	+7.5	+17.2	+77.2	+120.2	+124.0	+124.2	+123.5	+123.5
Ashburton	+8.3	+11.4	+10.5	+9.8	+15.4	+65.8	+87.6	+91.1	+90.8	+90.2	+90.2
Methven	+16.7	+18.9	+18.2	+17.5	+25.0	+74.2	+98.4	+103.9	+104.5	+103.9	+103.9
Hinds	+5.8	+8.0	+7.1	+6.4	+10.9	+56.5	+72.7	+77.2	+78.1	+77.5	+77.5
Temuka	+5.7	+6.1	+5.3	+4.7	+7.2	+34.1	+38.4	+40.5	+42.6	+42.1	+42.1

Irrigation Data

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Soil and Grass Temperatures

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