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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 30/5/26 9:18 AM

3-Day Rainfall Outlook (ECMWF 51-member ensemble)
Location	Sun 31 May			Mon 01 Jun			Tue 02 Jun
	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*
Culverden	46%	0.1	2.3	100%	2.2	10.9	84%	0.7	10.0
Rangiora	38%	0.0	1.7	86%	0.9	5.5	54%	0.2	8.0
Darfield	74%	0.6	4.4	96%	1.5	9.0	64%	0.2	7.7
Ashburton	22%	0.0	1.4	72%	0.2	5.7	52%	0.0	7.6
Methven	88%	0.6	4.4	88%	0.9	8.2	68%	0.2	9.4
Hinds	22%	0.0	1.4	72%	0.2	5.7	52%	0.0	7.6
Temuka	26%	0.1	1.7	68%	0.2	6.3	68%	0.0	8.7

This afternoon sees variable cloud across the region with light winds in most areas. The northeasterly sea breeze is establishing across the plains, reaching 15 to 18 km/h at Lincoln and Darfield. Temperatures reach the mid-teens on the plains, around 15 to 16°C, cooler at 9°C on the Kaikōura Coast and only 6 to 7°C in the Mackenzie Basin. The high country remains grey with broken low cloud. Tonight the northeasterly strengthens, reaching 25 to 30 km/h with gusts to 50 km/h across the mid-plains and coast by the early hours of Sunday. Cloud thickens across the region. Banks Peninsula experiences gusty conditions with gusts to 60 km/h around Akaroa overnight. Temperatures remain mild, holding in the low to mid-teens on the plains and coast.

Tomorrow morning the fresh northeasterly continues across the plains, with gusts to 55 km/h at Lincoln and the mid-plains. Cloud is thick region-wide. Rain develops in the Mackenzie Basin and foothills during the morning, with 5 to 10mm expected through the day in the high country. Banks Peninsula sees sharp gusts to 80 km/h during the morning and afternoon. Temperatures reach the high teens to around 20°C on the plains. Tomorrow night rain spreads more widely, with falls of 3 to 4mm across the plains and up to 8mm at Kaikōura . The northeasterly eases slightly but remains fresh, with gusts to 40 km/h persisting across the plains. Conditions remain mild overnight with temperatures in the mid-teens.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Saturday 30 May 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Saturday	Moderate NE, fine	10–18	Ground inland	—
Sunday	Moderate NE, rain	16–20	—	Gusts 83 km/h Akaroa
Monday	Moderate NE, rain	17–22	—	—
Tuesday	Light SW change, → SW evening	11–19	—	—
Wednesday	Light NE, → NNE evening	12–14	—	—
Thursday	Moderate NW, → NW evening, showers	13–18	—	—
Friday	Moderate NW, → ESE evening, patchy drizzle	14–18	—	—
Next Saturday–Next Monday	Moderate NW, → N overnight, showers	9–17	Ground inland	—

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Darfield	25 mm expected, likely 20–35 mm	+10 to +26 mm surplus — comfortable
Methven	25 mm expected, likely 19–35 mm	+10 to +27 mm surplus — comfortable
Culverden	24 mm expected, likely 17–37 mm	+10 to +29 mm surplus — comfortable
Temuka	20 mm expected, likely 13–31 mm	+7 to +24 mm surplus — comfortable
Rangiora	19 mm expected, likely 13–29 mm	+2 to +18 mm surplus — adequate
Ashburton	19 mm expected, likely 10–33 mm	+8 mm surplus, -1 mm in driest run — adequate
Hinds	19 mm expected, likely 10–33 mm	+8 mm surplus, -1 mm in driest run — adequate

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Monday continues the northeasterly pattern with fresh winds gusting to 50 km/h across the plains. Rain becomes more widespread during the afternoon and evening, with 4 to 6mm expected across most of the region. Temperatures reach the low twenties at Lincoln, high teens elsewhere. The Mackenzie Basin remains grey with further light rain totalling around 3 to 4mm.

Monday night sees rainfall totals of 3 to 5mm across the plains before easing. The northeasterly begins to ease through the evening. Banks Peninsula continues to experience gusty conditions with gusts to 65 km/h.

Tuesday brings a southerly change. The change moves through Christchurch around 4am, then Ashburton by 7am and across the plains through the morning. This is a moderate change rather than a sharp southerly buster, with winds backing to the southwest at 15 to 20 km/h and gusts to 40 km/h. Temperatures drop several degrees behind the change, with highs limited to 12 to 14°C on the plains. The day is grey with low cloud region-wide. Little rain accompanies the change. The Kaikōura Coast shows moderate instability with potential for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Wednesday sees light easterly to northeasterly winds establishing across the plains with grey, overcast conditions persisting. Highs reach 13 to 14°C. The Mackenzie Basin remains cold with a low of around 3°C and possible frost.

Thursday brings a return to northwesterly conditions with fresh winds developing, gusting to 45 to 50 km/h across the northern and mid-plains. A few showers develop, mainly about the ranges and high country where 5 to 7mm is expected. Temperatures recover to the mid to high teens.

Friday continues the northwest flow with a developing nor'west sky of high cloud. Fresh to strong winds reach the coast and southern areas, with gusts to 50 km/h at Timaru. Light rain or drizzle is possible about Banks Peninsula and the ranges. Frost possible in the Mackenzie overnight.

Next Saturday sees the nor'wester persisting through the morning before a westerly change moves through during the afternoon. Winds back to the west at Christchurch around 3pm, spreading inland through the evening. Light rain accompanies the change with 1 to 2mm expected. Ground frost possible in the Mackenzie overnight.

Next Sunday brings cooler conditions with temperatures only reaching 11 to 13°C. Light winds from variable directions. Mostly fine with some high cloud. Ground frost develops overnight across the inland plains and high country, with lows near 3° C at Rangiora and Timaru.

Next Monday remains cool and settled with light winds and variable cloud. Highs of 10 to 12°C across the region. Frost possible overnight in sheltered inland areas.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET ₀ (mm/day)
Location	Sat 30 May	Sun 31 May	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Mean
Culverden	0.99	1.02	0.66	1.03	0.69	0.84	0.91	1.05	0.71	0.62	0.85
Rangiora	1.78	2.35	1.60	0.65	0.63	1.29	2.20	2.21	0.78	0.80	1.43
Darfield	1.19	1.46	1.26	0.46	0.55	1.15	1.83	1.64	0.82	0.81	1.12
Ashburton	1.34	1.85	1.38	0.43	0.71	1.31	2.07	1.49	0.82	0.88	1.23
Methven	1.10	0.84	0.68	0.47	0.62	0.76	0.92	0.85	0.75	0.74	0.77
Hinds	1.21	1.74	1.57	0.59	0.78	1.23	2.72	1.19	0.79	0.83	1.27
Temuka	0.65	1.07	0.85	0.45	0.64	0.47	0.77	0.82	0.77	0.77	0.73

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Sat 30 May	Sun 31 May	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Total
Culverden	0.0	0.0	4.7	1.5	0.4	4.1	0.1	0.0	0.6	0.0	11.4
Rangiora	0.0	0.2	5.3	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	1.2	0.0	8.2
Darfield	0.0	0.6	5.9	0.9	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	1.8	0.0	9.8
Ashburton	0.0	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	0.0	7.0
Methven	0.0	7.9	8.7	0.5	0.1	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	18.1
Hinds	0.0	2.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	7.5
Temuka	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	0.0	3.0

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Sat 30 May	Sun 31 May	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Final
Culverden	-1.0	-2.0	+2.0	+2.5	+2.2	+5.5	+4.7	+3.6	+3.5	+2.9	+2.9
Rangiora	-1.8	-3.9	-0.2	-0.9	-1.5	-1.3	-3.5	-5.7	-5.3	-6.1	-6.1
Darfield	-1.2	-2.0	+2.6	+3.0	+2.5	+1.9	+0.1	-1.5	-0.6	-1.4	-1.4
Ashburton	-1.3	-2.8	+0.6	+0.2	-0.5	-1.8	-3.9	-5.4	-4.4	-5.3	-5.3
Methven	-1.1	+6.0	+14.0	+14.0	+13.5	+13.6	+12.7	+11.9	+11.1	+10.4	+10.4
Hinds	-1.2	-0.9	0.0	-0.6	-1.4	-2.6	-5.3	-6.5	-4.3	-5.1	-5.1
Temuka	-0.7	-0.7	-1.6	-1.8	-2.5	-2.9	-3.7	-4.5	-3.5	-4.3	-4.3

Irrigation Data

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Soil and Grass Temperatures

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