HIGHLIGHTSAt 2,310m t, the 2024/25 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production estimate is 7m higher m/m (month-on-month), with increases for maize (mainly Brazil) and wheat (Iran). However, output will again fall short of forecast consumption, placed at 2,334m t, 6m more than projected previously. Carryovers (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are placed at a 10-year low of 581m t, 1m higher m/m. The trade figure (Jul/Jun) is maintained at 418m t.
Prospects for the next grain harvest remain broadly favourable, although an unusually dry winter and early spring has reduced yield potential in parts of Near East Asia. Including upgrades for the Americas, the global crop projection is boosted by 2m t, to a record 2,375m. Tied to a slightly reduced figure for feed, forecast consumption is trimmed m/m, to 2,372m t. Closing stocks are placed 4m t higher than before, at 585m, on upgraded outlooks for wheat and maize. The trade projection is raised by 4m t from April, to 428m.
The Council’s expectations for 2024/25 soyabean supply and demand are subject to only marginal changes from previously; an uprated figure for production is matched by an increase for total use, leaving inventories little-changed, at 82m t. For 2025/26, with production seen unchanged from before and total use lifted slightly, inventories are predicted 2m t lower m/m. The projection for trade is raised by 2m t, to 183m, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year), a new high.
The IGC’s outlook for rice trade in 2025 is lifted slightly, to a peak of 59m t (+2% y/y). While the projection for 2025/26 global production is pegged fractionally higher m/m, an uprated figure for total use lowers world end-season carryovers by 1m t m/m. World import demand in 2026 is predicted near-unchanged from April, at around 60m t (+2%), shaped by demand from buyers in Asia and Africa.
Weighed mainly by a drop in average maize export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by 1%.
With reduced acreage broadly balanced by better yields, 2024/25 grains production is seen essentially unchanged y/y, at 2,310m t. Global demand is forecast modestly higher than the season before, boosted mainly by rising industrial uptake in Brazil. Including drawdowns in maize, wheat and barley stocks, grain inventories are pegged 4% down y/y. China has retreated from the world market this season, contributing to a 6% drop in global trade, to 418m t.
Grains production is projected to expand by 3% in 2025/26, to 2,375m t, a fresh peak. In addition to predicted solid gains in the EU, output is also seen higher in Argentina and the US. Increases in feed, industrial and food uses are forecast to boost global uptake to 2,372m t, up by 2% y/y. After three successive drawdowns, carryovers may recover to 585m t (581m), including 146m (131m) in the major exporters. Tied mainly to increased wheat shipments, total trade could reach 428m t, up by 2% from the previous season's unusually small total.
In a year of heavy supplies, world soyabean uptake and inventories are forecast at respective peaks in 2024/25, with trade also seen edging up to 181m t (+1%). Boosted by larger South American crops, the 2025/26 global output is tentatively predicted at a peak (+2%), with firmer demand for soya products across feed, food and industrial sectors set to underpin record processing. While shipments to China are seen little-changed y/y, larger deliveries to other destinations in Asia, as well as to Africa, should support expanded trade (+1%).
After the prior season’s solid y/y increase (+14m t), global rice production is seen expanding further in 2025/26, to a fresh peak, including gains in China and the major exporters. With total consumption set to advance on expanded food demand, aggregate stocks are predicted to edge up (+1m), including major exporters’ reserves well above 50m t. Trade in 2026 is seen rising by 2% y/y, bolstered by the import requirements of buyers in Africa and Asia.
In the Council’s first formal projections, world chickpeas output is seen contracting in 2025/26, while total use is predicted to rise across the forecast period. With the next trade year around seven months away, prospects for shipment flows in 2026 are especially tentative; at 2.9m t (-3%), volumes are set to stay above average. Separately, total trade in all pulses in 2025 is forecast to contract by 7% y/y, chiefly on reduced flows of dry peas and lentils.
MARKET SUMMARY
The IGC GOI edged lower in the period since the April GMR. With relatively minor changes in most constituent components, the downside was mainly driven by a drop in the maize sub-Index.
With offsetting movements across the leading origins, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index was unchanged overall, quoted 11% lower y/y.
Amid building expectations for the next Brazilian and US harvests, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index retreated by a net 4%.
The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index was broadly flat over the past five weeks, holding at a more than two and a half year low.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was unchanged versus the April GMR, with softer quotations in Argentina balanced by modest gains in Brazil and the US.