HIGHLIGHTSEntirely because of an uprated maize figure, the 2024/25 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is raised by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,313m. As uptake is boosted a little from before, the outlook for closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is raised by 1m t, to 582m, a drawdown of 24m y/y (year-on-year). Trade (Jul/Jun) is 5m t up from last month, mainly on an increased forecast for wheat.
The 2025/26 grains production projection is lifted by 2m t m/m, to 2,377m (+3% y/y). The figure for consumption is up by 1m t, to 2,373m, on an upgraded outlook for food use. Slightly larger carry-in stocks and output gains add 1m t to the projection for world closing inventories, now seen at 586m. Largely because of an upgrade for wheat shipments, grains trade is forecast 2m t higher, at 430m.
This month’s report features relatively marginal changes to soyabean supply and demand compared to May. Based on the pace of shipments to date, the outlook for trade in 2024/25 is trimmed by about 1m t, but would still be a record. World production and utilisation in 2025/26 are predicted unchanged from before but, due to a slightly uprated figure for carry-ins, inventories are lifted by 1m t m/m.
Tied to an upgrade for India, the 2024/25 rice production estimate is lifted to a high of 541m t (+3%). Similarly, an increased projection for the same country places the 2025/26 world outturn figure 3m t higher m/m; together with increased carry-ins, global stocks are revised up by 5m t m/m. The projection for trade in 2026 is maintained at a peak of 60m t.
Led by falls in grains and rice fob prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by 2% m/m.
Boosted primarily by larger wheat, sorghum and oats crops, 2024/25 total grains production is forecast slightly higher y/y, at 2,313mt. The increased outturn does not compensate for tighter opening stocks and overall supply is projected to tighten compared to the year before. World carryovers are forecast to shrink by 4%, to a 10-year low. With broad based declines, grains trade is placed at 423m t, a drop of 36m from 2023/24.
The world total grains outturn is projected to expand for a third successive year in 2025/26, pegged at 2,377m t (+3%), with the strongest gains for maize. Faster consumption growth is envisaged, including record feed, food and industrial uses. Despite another drawdown in wheat inventories, end-season grain stocks are forecast to build slightly, to 586m t, including an expansion in US maize carryovers. Primarily tied to an upswing in wheat flows, trade is projected to increase by 2% y/y.
Tied to expectations for larger South American crops, global soyabean production in 2025/26 is seen 1% higher y/y, at a fresh peak. With consumption predicted to register a solid gain (+18m), combined end-season carryovers are likely to edge down; nevertheless, major exporters’ reserves could increase slightly, to a seven-year high. Similar to the prior year, trade is projected to post a modest y/y gain, to a record of 183m t.
Following on from a sizeable increase in the prior year, world rice output is seen expanding to a high in 2025/26 on gains in the five majors. Given a heavy increase in availabilities, consumption is predicted to expand by 1%, while aggregate inventories are set to accumulate, with Indian reserves moving close to 50m t. Trade is projected at a record in 2026 on stronger demand from Africa.
After the previous year’s solid expansion, world lentils output is likely to advance further in 2025/26 (+2%), with sizeable availabilities supporting potential increases in consumption and stocks. Trade in 2025 is forecast to contract by 4%, to 4.7m t, on softer Indian buying, potentially staying at a similar level in 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY
Including solid declines in maize and barley fob prices, the IGC GOI dropped by a net 2%.
The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index succumbed to building northern hemisphere harvest pressure and generally ample global availabilities, falling by 2%.
Against an increasingly bearish supply outlook, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index slumped by 7% over the past five weeks, dropping to a fresh nine-month low.
The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index declined by 3%, weighed by tepid global demand and strong competition for business.
With mixed movements across leading origins, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was little-changed over the month.