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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 22/6/26 10:28 AM

3-Day Rainfall spread (risk of rain, likely range)
Location	Tue 23 Jun			Wed 24 Jun			Thu 25 Jun
	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High
Culverden	0%	0.0	0.0	82%	0.4	9.6	90%	1.5	24.7
Rangiora	0%	0.0	0.0	76%	0.3	8.2	94%	1.7	30.2
Darfield	0%	0.0	0.0	68%	0.1	9.3	88%	0.7	33.7
Ashburton	0%	0.0	0.0	54%	0.0	7.7	90%	1.1	28.7
Methven	0%	0.0	0.0	60%	0.0	8.3	86%	0.7	38.1
Hinds	0%	0.0	0.0	54%	0.0	7.7	90%	1.1	28.7
Temuka	0%	0.0	0.0	42%	0.0	5.3	76%	0.1	19.6

This afternoon sees settled conditions across Canterbury with light northeasterly winds reaching across the full extent of the plains from the coast to the foothills. Highs of 10 to 12°C on the plains and coast, cooler in the Mackenzie Basin where low cloud persists with temperatures only reaching 3 to 4°C. The Kaikōura Coast and plains remain sunny while Banks Peninsula sees variable cloud developing.

This evening winds ease and shift light southerly across most areas, then drift northwest overnight. Temperatures drop sharply on the plains with ground frost forming — lows of minus 1°C in the Culverden valley and around 1 to 2°C across the mid-plains. The Mackenzie Basin remains cold and overcast.

Tomorrow morning dawns frosty across the inland plains with ground frost at Darfield, Lincoln, Rangiora, Ashburton and Timaru, hard frost at Culverden. Light northwest to westerly winds and mostly clear skies early. Cloud increases from the north through the afternoon with temperatures reaching 10 to 12°C on the plains.

Tomorrow night sees cloud thickening region-wide as a front approaches from the northwest. Light winds, no frost expected on the coast but possible in sheltered inland areas. The Mackenzie Basin remains overcast with hard frost.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Monday 22 June 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Monday	Light NE, fine	10–13	Hard (Culverden, Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Tuesday	Light WNW, fine	9–12	Hard (Culverden, Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Wednesday	Moderate SW change, → SSE evening, showers PM	9–13	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Thursday	Fresh SW change, → SW evening, rain	6–9	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Gusts 88 km/h Akaroa · Snow to 800m
Friday	Fresh SW change, showers	5–9	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Gusts 90 km/h Akaroa · Snow flurries to 500m
Saturday	Moderate SW change	10–12	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Sunday	Light SW change, → SW overnight, showers	8–12	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Snow Lewis Pass
Next Monday–Next Wednesday	Light NW, → S evening	6–11	Hard (Culverden, Rangiora)	—

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Culverden	34 mm expected, likely 22–45 mm	+17 to +40 mm surplus — comfortable
Rangiora	34 mm expected, likely 23–64 mm	+16 to +58 mm surplus — comfortable
Darfield	29 mm expected, likely 16–65 mm	+9 to +60 mm surplus — comfortable
Methven	27 mm expected, likely 11–64 mm	+5 to +59 mm surplus — comfortable
Ashburton	24 mm expected, likely 10–56 mm	+3 to +49 mm surplus — comfortable
Hinds	24 mm expected, likely 10–56 mm	+3 to +49 mm surplus — comfortable
Temuka	12 mm expected, likely 5–42 mm	+5 mm surplus, -2 mm in driest run — adequate

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Wednesday morning begins with light winds and increasing mid-level cloud. Rain develops from midday, spreading from Culverden and Rangiora southward across the plains during the afternoon. A sou'west change moves through simultaneously across the plains during the late evening — winds swing southwest and freshen. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8mm on the northern plains and coast, lighter amounts around 1 to 2mm at Ashburton and south. Ground frost possible Wednesday night on the inland plains. Wednesday night the sou'west change clears through with showers continuing, mainly north of Christchurch. Gusty southwest winds develop, strongest around Banks Peninsula with gusts to 57 km/h overnight. Temperatures remain mild on the coast, dropping toward 3 to 4°C on the inland plains.

Thursday brings a cold, wet and windy day as the sou'west flow strengthens. Rain totals of 20 to 30mm at Kaikōura, 5 to 10mm on the northern plains, lighter further south. Strong southwest winds with gusts approaching 70 km/h on the plains and sharp gusts to 88 km/h at Akaroa. Snow likely on Lewis Pass with accumulations of 10 to 15cm, possible on Arthur's Pass. Snow above 800m on the western hills, may lower to 500m in flurries for a time at night. Highs only 5 to 9°C. Hard frost in the Mackenzie Basin.

Friday remains cold and blustery with strong southwest winds continuing. Gusts to 70 km/h on the plains and sharp gusts to 90 km/h around Banks Peninsula. Light showers only, totals under 2mm. Snow continues on Lewis Pass. Temperatures 5 to 8°C, hard frost in the Mackenzie.

Saturday sees the southwest flow moderate. Cloud breaks developing with highs improving to 10 to 12°C. Winds ease to fresh southwest in the morning, lighter in the afternoon. Frost possible on the inland plains overnight.

Sunday brings another unsettled change with rain returning to North Canterbury during the afternoon. Light to moderate winds, highs of 8 to 12°C. Snow possible on Lewis Pass.

Confidence decreases from next Monday — the following is indicative only. Next Monday through next Wednesday shows a return to settled conditions with light winds and widespread frost. Hard frost at Culverden and Rangiora with overnight lows of minus 1 to 2°C. Fine weather with light northeast to northwest winds, highs of 8 to 11°C. The Mackenzie Basin remains cold with persistent low cloud and hard frost.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET₀ (mm/day)
Location	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Tue 30 Jun	Wed 01 Jul	Mean
Culverden	0.77	0.80	0.32	0.31	0.49	1.05	0.51	0.47	0.61	0.65	0.60
Rangiora	0.83	0.69	0.33	0.40	0.86	1.41	0.77	0.58	0.69	0.59	0.71
Darfield	0.82	0.73	0.40	0.38	1.01	1.25	0.55	0.63	0.65	0.64	0.71
Ashburton	0.87	0.72	0.51	0.51	1.05	0.96	0.66	0.43	0.63	0.69	0.70
Methven	0.78	0.73	0.47	0.44	0.94	0.94	0.46	0.48	0.68	0.76	0.67
Hinds	0.84	0.71	0.53	0.65	1.09	0.88	0.74	0.43	0.62	0.56	0.70
Temuka	0.69	0.69	0.62	0.88	1.61	1.28	0.71	0.60	0.47	0.47	0.80

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Tue 30 Jun	Wed 01 Jul	Total
Culverden	0.0	0.0	9.9	14.3	4.1	0.0	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.5
Rangiora	0.0	0.0	7.0	5.5	3.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	16.5
Darfield	0.0	0.0	1.7	4.8	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	9.8
Ashburton	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	10.4
Methven	0.0	0.0	0.5	5.4	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.6
Hinds	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	12.5
Temuka	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	Fri 26 Jun	Sat 27 Jun	Sun 28 Jun	Mon 29 Jun	Tue 30 Jun	Wed 01 Jul	Final
Culverden	-0.8	-1.6	+8.0	+22.0	+25.6	+24.6	+25.2	+24.8	+24.2	+23.5	+23.5
Rangiora	-0.8	-1.5	+5.2	+10.2	+12.8	+11.4	+11.2	+10.6	+9.9	+9.3	+9.3
Darfield	-0.8	-1.5	-0.2	+4.2	+5.9	+4.6	+4.1	+4.0	+3.4	+2.7	+2.7
Ashburton	-0.9	-1.6	-2.1	+5.4	+6.1	+5.2	+4.5	+4.7	+4.1	+3.4	+3.4
Methven	-0.8	-1.5	-1.5	+3.5	+3.2	+2.3	+1.8	+1.4	+0.7	-0.1	-0.1
Hinds	-0.8	-1.5	-2.1	+6.1	+8.1	+7.2	+6.5	+6.6	+6.0	+5.4	+5.4
Temuka	-0.7	-1.4	-2.0	0.0	-1.6	-2.9	-3.6	-4.2	-4.6	-5.1	-5.1

Irrigation Data

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Soil and Grass Temperatures

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