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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 8/6/26 10:26 AM

3-Day Rainfall spread (risk of rain, likely range)
Location	Tue 09 Jun			Wed 10 Jun			Thu 11 Jun
	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High
Culverden	6%	0.0	0.7	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Rangiora	2%	0.0	0.3	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Darfield	0%	0.0	0.1	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Ashburton	0%	0.0	0.2	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Methven	0%	0.0	0.1	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Hinds	0%	0.0	0.2	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Temuka	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0	0%	0.0	0.0

A wind change moves through the region this afternoon, arriving in Christchurch around 1pm and reaching the foothills and inland areas by mid-afternoon. Ahead of the change, a moderate nor'wester affects the foothills and mid-plains with gusts to 75 km/h at Culverden. Winds swing to the southwest behind the change, with highs reaching the mid to high teens across the plains. This evening, rain develops across the northern half of the region from around 6pm, spreading to the foothills by 8pm. Totals remain light, generally a few millimetres or less. Banks Peninsula bears the brunt of the wind, with damaging southwest gusts to 98 km/h during the evening, strengthening to destructive gusts of 114 km/h overnight. The Mackenzie Basin remains clear and light throughout, with temperatures dropping to low single figures overnight and ground frost likely.

Tomorrow morning, a fresh southwest flow persists across the plains and coast, with gusts to 69 km/h at Christchurch and destructive gusts to 112 km/h continuing at Akaroa through the morning. Skies are clear across most areas. Winds ease through the day, with highs reaching 11 to 14 degrees — noticeably cooler after the change. Tomorrow night, winds ease and back to the northwest. Ground frost develops in sheltered inland areas including Culverden, Darfield, and the Mackenzie Basin. The Mackenzie sees temperatures drop to near zero with hard frost possible.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Monday 8 June 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Monday	Fresh NW, showers evening	14–18	Ground inland	Damaging gusts 114 km/h Akaroa
Tuesday	Fresh SW change, → WNW evening	11–14	Ground inland	Damaging gusts 112 km/h Akaroa
Wednesday	Light NE, → NE evening, fine	10–15	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Thursday	Light E, → WNW evening	9–12	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Friday	Light SW, → WSW evening, showers PM	8–14	Ground	Snow Lewis Pass
Saturday	Light NE, fine	10–13	Ground	—
Sunday	Light NE, → NNW evening, fine	10–14	Ground	—
Next Monday–Next Wednesday	Light NE, → NE evening	10–18	Ground inland	—

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Culverden	5 mm expected, likely 2–11 mm	-10 to -1 mm — deficit risk
Temuka	5 mm expected, likely 2–10 mm	-8 to -1 mm — deficit risk
Rangiora	4 mm expected, likely 1–8 mm	-9 to -2 mm — deficit risk
Darfield	4 mm expected, likely 1–9 mm	-10 to -2 mm — deficit risk
Ashburton	2 mm expected, likely 1–6 mm	-11 to -6 mm — deficit risk
Methven	2 mm expected, likely 1–8 mm	-8 to -1 mm — deficit risk
Hinds	2 mm expected, likely 1–6 mm	-11 to -6 mm — deficit risk

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Wednesday is a settled day with light winds, generally from the northeast on the plains and coast as a sea breeze develops through the afternoon, reaching the mid-plains by evening. Skies are clear to partly cloudy. Ground frost is widespread overnight, with hard frost in the Mackenzie Basin where temperatures fall to minus 1 degree. Wednesday night remains calm and cold. Overnight lows reach 1 to 4 degrees across the plains with ground frost in most inland areas.

Thursday sees a cold easterly developing across the plains, with broken cloud and grey periods, particularly around Christchurch and Banks Peninsula. Temperatures struggle to reach double figures in some areas, with highs of 9 to 12 degrees. Light southwest winds develop in the evening. The Mackenzie Basin remains cold with a chance of light precipitation overnight. Hard frost continues in the high country.

Friday brings a grey, cool day with light southerly winds and scattered showers. Totals remain light, around 1 to 2mm for most areas. Snow is possible at Lewis Pass, though accumulations are expected to be minor — a dusting only. Ground frost is widespread overnight.

Saturday is drier with variable cloud and light northeasterly winds. A sea breeze reaches the mid-plains during the afternoon. Highs reach 10 to 13 degrees. Ground frost continues overnight in sheltered inland areas.

Sunday sees variable cloud with light northerly winds developing. Conditions remain settled and dry. Highs of 10 to 14 degrees. Ground frost overnight, mainly inland.

Next Monday appears settled with light northeast to easterly winds and mostly fine conditions. Highs reach 12 to 18 degrees with the warmest temperatures inland. Ground frost possible overnight in sheltered areas.

Next Tuesday continues the settled pattern with light northerly winds strengthening through the day, particularly in mid-Canterbury where gusts may reach 40 km/h. Variable cloud with temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees.

Next Wednesday shows signs of a nor'wester developing, with gusts to 53 km/h at Culverden and around 50 km/h at Ashburton. A southerly change may arrive in coastal South Canterbury during the evening. Mostly fine with highs of 10 to 14 degrees.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET₀ (mm/day)
Location	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Thu 11 Jun	Fri 12 Jun	Sat 13 Jun	Sun 14 Jun	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Mean
Culverden	2.21	1.02	0.86	0.71	0.67	0.70	0.90	0.99	0.79	0.76	0.96
Rangiora	1.50	1.66	0.97	0.74	0.60	0.63	0.63	0.75	0.69	0.71	0.89
Darfield	1.94	1.27	0.95	0.65	0.44	0.58	1.25	0.99	0.87	0.79	0.97
Ashburton	2.17	1.36	1.04	0.78	0.31	0.64	0.92	1.07	0.92	1.18	1.04
Methven	1.28	1.51	0.78	0.78	0.34	0.75	0.78	0.71	0.83	1.08	0.88
Hinds	2.02	1.46	1.03	0.77	0.32	0.59	0.71	0.73	0.75	1.13	0.95
Temuka	1.68	1.28	0.85	0.61	0.30	0.51	0.63	0.72	0.58	0.80	0.80

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Thu 11 Jun	Fri 12 Jun	Sat 13 Jun	Sun 14 Jun	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Total
Culverden	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	1.7
Rangiora	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
Darfield	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8
Ashburton	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2
Methven	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6
Hinds	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7
Temuka	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Thu 11 Jun	Fri 12 Jun	Sat 13 Jun	Sun 14 Jun	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Final
Culverden	-1.2	-2.1	-3.0	-3.7	-4.4	-5.1	-6.0	-6.4	-7.2	-7.9	-7.9
Rangiora	-0.9	-2.6	-3.5	-4.3	-4.6	-5.2	-5.8	-6.6	-7.3	-8.0	-8.0
Darfield	-1.0	-2.3	-3.3	-3.9	-3.4	-4.0	-5.3	-6.3	-7.1	-7.9	-7.9
Ashburton	-2.1	-3.4	-4.5	-5.2	-3.5	-4.1	-5.0	-6.1	-7.0	-8.2	-8.2
Methven	-1.2	-2.7	-3.5	-4.2	-3.1	-3.8	-4.6	-5.3	-6.2	-7.2	-7.2
Hinds	-1.8	-3.3	-4.3	-5.1	-3.9	-4.5	-5.2	-5.9	-6.7	-7.8	-7.8
Temuka	-1.7	-3.0	-3.8	-4.4	-4.1	-4.6	-5.3	-6.0	-6.6	-7.4	-7.4

Irrigation Data

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Soil and Grass Temperatures

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