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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 1/6/26 9:47 AM

3-Day Rainfall Outlook (ECMWF 51-member ensemble)
Location	Tue 02 Jun			Wed 03 Jun			Thu 04 Jun
	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*	*Prob*	*Low*	*High*
Culverden	82%	0.2	13.7	38%	0.0	5.1	66%	0.1	4.7
Rangiora	60%	0.1	11.9	42%	0.0	5.1	68%	0.2	4.1
Darfield	72%	0.2	13.6	42%	0.0	6.3	72%	0.2	4.5
Ashburton	70%	0.2	14.6	46%	0.0	6.2	42%	0.0	2.4
Methven	68%	0.3	13.7	38%	0.0	6.6	58%	0.2	3.9
Hinds	70%	0.2	14.6	46%	0.0	6.2	42%	0.0	2.4
Temuka	80%	0.1	8.2	46%	0.0	6.1	54%	0.2	2.8

A northeasterly flow covers the region this afternoon, penetrating across the full extent of the plains. Cloud is mid-level and grey, with rain developing through the afternoon and evening, heaviest about the foothills where Methven may receive around 10mm. A gusty northeasterly brings gusts to 55–60 km/h about Darfield and Lincoln through the afternoon and into the evening. Tonight the northeasterly eases slightly but remains fresh, with gusts to 40–45 km/h persisting across the mid-plains. Rain continues, particularly about the coast and foothills, easing toward midnight. Heavy rain affects Arthur's Pass with around 90mm expected, and Lewis Pass receives approximately 20mm. The Mackenzie Basin remains quieter with light southwest winds and around 2mm of rain.

Tomorrow morning sees lingering cloud and light winds across the plains. Through the afternoon a sou'west change pushes through — arriving at Rangiora around midday and reaching Christchurch and Darfield by late afternoon. This is a moderate change with post-shift winds around 20 km/h and gusts to 40 km/h. A few millimetres of rain accompany the change across the plains. The Mackenzie Basin receives heavier falls of around 15mm, mainly during the afternoon. South Canterbury receives the change earliest, with rain and a fresh southerly at Timaru through the afternoon. Tomorrow night the southwest flow eases. Rain clears across most areas, though a few showers persist about the high country. Temperatures drop several degrees behind the change.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Monday 1 June 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Monday	Moderate NE, rain PM	16–20	—	—
Tuesday	Light SW change, → SW evening, showers	14–20	—	—
Wednesday	Light NE, → NNE evening	13	Ground inland	—
Thursday	Moderate NE, showers AM	15–20	—	—
Friday	Light NE, → NNW evening, patchy drizzle	15–19	—	—
Saturday	Moderate SW change, → SW evening, heavy rain evening	12–16	—	Gusts 85 km/h Akaroa
Sunday	Moderate SW change, → NNW evening, showers overnight	8–11	—	Gusts 82 km/h Akaroa · Snow Arthur's Pass
Next Monday–Next Wednesday	Moderate SW change, → WNW overnight, patchy drizzle	9–13	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Gusts 94 km/h Akaroa

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Darfield	31 mm expected, likely 18–44 mm	+9 to +34 mm surplus — comfortable
Culverden	29 mm expected, likely 22–38 mm	+14 to +29 mm surplus — comfortable
Methven	28 mm expected, likely 16–42 mm	+6 to +33 mm surplus — comfortable
Rangiora	23 mm expected, likely 16–39 mm	+6 to +29 mm surplus — comfortable
Ashburton	20 mm expected, likely 12–33 mm	0 to +21 mm surplus — comfortable
Hinds	20 mm expected, likely 12–33 mm	0 to +21 mm surplus — comfortable
Temuka	19 mm expected, likely 13–30 mm	+5 to +23 mm surplus — comfortable

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Wednesday daytime is calmer. A northeasterly develops across the plains through the morning and afternoon, light to moderate. Skies brighten with variable cloud. Ground frost is possible overnight in the Mackenzie Basin and inland North Canterbury where clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to drop to 3–4°C. Wednesday night remains settled with light northeasterly flow continuing. The coast stays mild around 10°C while inland areas cool to 5–8°C.

Thursday sees the northeasterly strengthen to a fresh breeze, gusts reaching 50 km/h at Lincoln and 40 km/h at Christchurch and Darfield. Morning rain affects the mid-plains, particularly Lincoln with around 5mm, clearing through the day. The Mackenzie Basin remains grey with persistent light rain totalling around 8mm. Temperatures reach the mid to high teens on the plains.

Friday continues the northeasterly pattern with moderate winds across the plains. Rain develops from the afternoon, spreading north from the high country to reach the coast by evening. Falls of 10–20mm are expected across the mid-Canterbury plains and foothills by midnight.

Saturday brings a sou'west change. Strong southwesterly winds develop through the day with gusts exceeding 60 km/h on the plains and sharp gusts to 85 km/h about Banks Peninsula. Widespread rain accompanies the change, heaviest about the foothills where 15–20mm is likely. Temperatures struggle to reach double figures. Snow is likely on both Arthur's Pass and Lewis Pass, with accumulations of 2–5cm expected.

Sunday sees the southwesterly continuing, gusty to 50 km/h with sharp gusts to 80 km/h persisting about Banks Peninsula. Showers continue, mainly during the morning, then easing. Highs remain cool at 8–11°C across the region.

Next Monday remains cool with a fresh southwesterly, gusts around 40–45 km/h on the plains. Banks Peninsula may see damaging gusts to 94 km/h. Grey skies persist with scattered showers. Ground frost is possible overnight in sheltered inland areas.

Next Tuesday brings clearing skies and lighter winds. A ridge builds, delivering a fine day across most areas. Hard frost is expected in the Mackenzie Basin with temperatures dropping below zero.

Next Wednesday sees cloud increasing again with a light southwesterly. Temperatures remain cool at 10–13°C on the plains. Hard frost persists overnight in the Mackenzie Basin.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET ₀ (mm/day)
Location	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Mean
Culverden	0.74	0.72	0.84	1.04	0.99	0.82	0.64	0.55	0.86	0.67	0.79
Rangiora	1.65	1.00	0.80	1.80	1.95	0.94	1.07	0.47	0.82	0.96	1.15
Darfield	1.37	0.70	0.82	1.46	1.23	0.72	1.23	0.58	0.75	0.79	0.97
Ashburton	1.19	0.97	0.86	1.65	1.41	0.99	1.18	0.79	0.79	0.81	1.06
Methven	0.57	0.70	0.76	0.85	0.87	0.60	1.07	0.69	0.79	0.76	0.77
Hinds	1.41	0.93	0.86	1.69	1.58	1.02	1.30	0.73	0.79	0.77	1.11
Temuka	0.84	0.65	0.81	0.80	1.03	0.70	1.06	0.55	0.71	0.72	0.79

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Total
Culverden	1.5	4.2	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.0	6.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.6
Rangiora	2.2	5.7	0.9	0.2	0.0	9.6	13.5	1.2	0.0	0.0	33.3
Darfield	2.9	3.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	6.4	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	24.3
Ashburton	4.9	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.9
Methven	13.9	4.3	0.0	1.8	1.3	11.4	11.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	43.9
Hinds	4.7	6.7	0.0	0.2	0.0	5.0	7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	23.9
Temuka	2.2	8.3	0.8	0.0	0.0	5.6	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	21.2

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Mon 01 Jun	Tue 02 Jun	Wed 03 Jun	Thu 04 Jun	Fri 05 Jun	Sat 06 Jun	Sun 07 Jun	Mon 08 Jun	Tue 09 Jun	Wed 10 Jun	Final
Culverden	+0.8	+4.2	+3.6	+3.0	+2.8	+3.0	+8.8	+8.3	+7.4	+6.7	+6.7
Rangiora	+0.6	+5.2	+5.3	+3.7	+1.8	+10.5	+22.9	+23.6	+22.8	+21.8	+21.8
Darfield	+1.5	+3.9	+3.5	+2.6	+1.3	+7.0	+16.8	+16.2	+15.4	+14.7	+14.7
Ashburton	+3.7	+5.5	+4.7	+3.0	+1.6	+5.6	+12.6	+11.9	+11.1	+10.3	+10.3
Methven	+13.3	+16.9	+16.2	+17.1	+17.5	+28.3	+38.5	+37.8	+37.0	+36.2	+36.2
Hinds	+3.3	+9.1	+8.2	+6.7	+5.1	+9.1	+15.1	+14.4	+13.6	+12.8	+12.8
Temuka	+1.4	+9.0	+9.0	+8.2	+7.2	+12.1	+15.3	+14.8	+14.1	+13.3	+13.3

Irrigation Data

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Soil and Grass Temperatures

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