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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 15/6/26 10:21 AM

3-Day Rainfall spread (risk of rain, likely range)
Location	Tue 16 Jun			Wed 17 Jun			Thu 18 Jun
	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High	Prob	Low	High
Culverden	90%	1.0	4.8	68%	0.4	4.0	0%	0.0	0.0
Rangiora	72%	0.8	2.7	22%	0.0	1.6	0%	0.0	0.0
Darfield	92%	1.0	2.8	28%	0.1	1.5	0%	0.0	0.0
Ashburton	78%	0.6	3.4	16%	0.0	1.2	2%	0.0	0.0
Methven	78%	0.6	2.6	18%	0.0	1.5	0%	0.0	0.0
Hinds	78%	0.6	3.4	16%	0.0	1.2	2%	0.0	0.0
Temuka	10%	0.0	0.9	14%	0.0	1.6	2%	0.0	0.0

A sou'west change moved through the region in the early hours of this morning, bringing a wet and cold day to follow. Rain is widespread this afternoon, heaviest in the foothills and Banks Peninsula where totals reach 15–18mm. Skies are grey and gloomy across the region with temperatures struggling to reach double figures — around 8–11°C on the plains, cooler at the foothills. Winds are light to moderate from the south to southwest.

This evening the rain continues, though easing, with a further 2–5mm likely. Snow is possible at Lewis Pass — chains should be carried. Conditions remain grey and cool with light southwest winds, clearing gradually overnight. Overnight lows fall to 5–7°C on the plains.

Tomorrow morning sees residual cloud clearing to a fine day across most of the region. Ground frost is possible on the inland plains around Ashburton and Methven, with temperatures starting near 4–6°C. The Mackenzie Basin remains grey and overcast with ground frost and temperatures struggling to reach 5°C.

Tomorrow afternoon a light northeast sea breeze develops across the mid-plains, reaching Lincoln by early afternoon. By evening, winds back to the northwest at the foothills. Overnight, a fresh nor'wester builds across inland areas, with gusty conditions at Culverden and Ashburton where gusts reach 60–70 km/h in the early hours of Wednesday.

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Monday 15 June 2026

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Monday	Moderate SW change, heavy rain PM	8–17	—	Snow Lewis Pass
Tuesday	Fresh NW, → SSE evening, patchy drizzle	9–11	Ground inland	—
Wednesday	Moderate SW, → W overnight, patchy drizzle	7–11	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	Snow Arthur's Pass
Thursday	Light NE, → NE overnight, fine	8–12	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Friday	Moderate NW, → NW evening, patchy drizzle	13–17	Ground	—
Saturday	Light NE, → WNW evening, heavy rain	12–19	Ground inland	—
Sunday	Light NW, → SSE evening, showers	10–16	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—
Next Monday–Next Wednesday	Light NE, → NNE evening, showers	7–13	Hard (Twizel / Mackenzie Basin)	—

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Culverden	43 mm expected, likely 35–53 mm	+25 to +43 mm surplus — comfortable
Darfield	39 mm expected, likely 32–46 mm	+22 to +39 mm surplus — comfortable
Methven	34 mm expected, likely 28–42 mm	+21 to +35 mm surplus — comfortable
Rangiora	32 mm expected, likely 27–42 mm	+18 to +35 mm surplus — comfortable
Temuka	32 mm expected, likely 23–37 mm	+16 to +28 mm surplus — comfortable
Ashburton	30 mm expected, likely 26–34 mm	+16 to +25 mm surplus — comfortable
Hinds	30 mm expected, likely 26–34 mm	+16 to +25 mm surplus — comfortable

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Wednesday morning sees a sou'west change sweep through from the coast. Christchurch sees the shift around 1am, spreading to Timaru by 5am and across the plains through the morning. A dry change with little rain — under 1mm on the plains, though the Mackenzie receives around 2mm. Snow is likely at Arthur's Pass and Lewis Pass, with accumulations of 3–8cm and chains required. Light southwest winds follow the change, easing through the day. Ground frost is widespread inland with a hard frost in the Mackenzie, where temperatures fall to minus 1°C.

Wednesday night sees winds ease and back northerly. Skies clear and temperatures drop to 1–4°C across the plains with widespread ground frost. The Mackenzie remains very cold.

Thursday is a quiet day with light winds and mostly sunny skies across the plains. A subtle southerly wind shift moves through mid-Canterbury during the late morning, though conditions remain dry and settled. Hard frost again in the Mackenzie overnight with ground frost widespread inland. Temperatures reach 9–12°C during the afternoon.

Friday sees a moderate nor'wester develop, strongest at the inner foothills where gusty conditions are likely with gusts to 55 km/h. The wind extends to the mid-plains but remains lighter near the coast. Temperatures respond, reaching 15–16°C on the plains. Light drizzle is possible at Culverden and Timaru, though most areas remain dry. Ground frost overnight.

Saturday brings a northeast flow across the full plains ahead of a frontal system. Rain develops through the day, reaching the Mackenzie and South Canterbury overnight and spreading north. Totals of 10–12mm are expected across most of the region. A sou'west change moves through during the afternoon, arriving at Darfield and Lincoln around midday and spreading north through the evening. Temperatures reach the high teens before the change.

Sunday is unsettled with broken cloud, showers, and a fresh southerly persisting at the South Canterbury coast. A few millimetres of rain is likely, mainly coastal. The Mackenzie sees a hard frost with temperatures falling to minus 1°C. A light westerly change moves through inland North Canterbury during the afternoon.

Next Monday sees a light northeast flow developing across the full plains with a subtle southerly shift through the mid-Canterbury area during the late morning. Scattered showers are possible, mainly light. Widespread frost continues inland with hard frost in the Mackenzie.

Next Tuesday is settled with light winds and variable cloud. Ground frost is widespread with hard frost in the Mackenzie where low cloud persists.

Next Wednesday continues the settled pattern with light northerly winds and fine conditions on the plains. Hard frost persists in the Mackenzie where temperatures remain around 1°C.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET₀ (mm/day)
Location	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Thu 18 Jun	Fri 19 Jun	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Mean
Culverden	0.79	0.91	0.69	0.83	1.41	0.88	1.25	0.70	0.80	0.59	0.89
Rangiora	0.42	0.76	0.65	0.76	1.11	1.22	0.58	0.54	0.65	0.66	0.74
Darfield	0.39	0.83	0.59	0.71	1.33	0.77	0.93	0.58	0.79	0.72	0.76
Ashburton	0.62	0.81	0.96	0.62	1.33	0.51	0.53	0.53	0.71	0.77	0.74
Methven	0.61	0.68	0.35	0.62	0.79	0.44	0.72	0.55	0.72	0.78	0.63
Hinds	0.55	0.76	1.06	0.61	1.34	0.42	0.42	0.48	0.69	0.77	0.71
Temuka	0.34	0.85	0.91	0.62	0.95	0.34	0.32	0.53	0.69	0.67	0.62

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Thu 18 Jun	Fri 19 Jun	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Total
Culverden	14.1	0.3	1.1	0.0	0.7	9.8	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	26.9
Rangiora	15.6	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8	2.8	1.6	0.0	0.0	29.2
Darfield	17.2	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.2	1.8	0.7	0.0	0.0	29.4
Ashburton	21.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.7
Methven	20.6	2.1	1.6	0.0	0.0	6.3	1.1	1.3	0.0	0.0	33.0
Hinds	20.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.7
Temuka	19.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	28.8

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Mon 15 Jun	Tue 16 Jun	Wed 17 Jun	Thu 18 Jun	Fri 19 Jun	Sat 20 Jun	Sun 21 Jun	Mon 22 Jun	Tue 23 Jun	Wed 24 Jun	Final
Culverden	+13.3	+12.7	+13.1	+12.3	+11.6	+20.5	+20.1	+19.4	+18.6	+18.1	+18.1
Rangiora	+15.2	+14.8	+14.2	+13.4	+12.3	+19.9	+22.1	+23.2	+22.5	+21.9	+21.9
Darfield	+16.8	+16.5	+15.9	+15.2	+13.8	+22.3	+23.2	+23.3	+22.5	+21.8	+21.8
Ashburton	+21.0	+20.8	+19.8	+19.2	+17.9	+24.4	+24.3	+23.8	+23.1	+22.3	+22.3
Methven	+20.0	+21.4	+22.7	+22.0	+21.3	+27.1	+27.5	+28.2	+27.5	+26.7	+26.7
Hinds	+19.8	+20.0	+18.9	+18.3	+17.0	+24.1	+24.5	+24.1	+23.4	+22.6	+22.6
Temuka	+19.3	+18.6	+17.7	+17.1	+16.1	+24.1	+24.5	+23.9	+23.2	+22.6	+22.6

Irrigation Data

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