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Mid Canterbury Weather

Last Modified 06-Nov-2009 12:26

Last Modified 8/5/26 18:16 PM

Canterbury Regional Outlook — Friday 8 May 2026

Saturday	Risk of Rain (%)	Likely amount (mm)	Winds	Sunday	Risk of Rain (%)	Likely amount (mm)	Winds
Morning	10%		Light SW	Morning	10%		Fresh NW
Afternoon	10%		Light NE	Afternoon	90%	1-3	Moderate S
Evening	10%		Moderate NW	Evening	10%		Moderate SW
Night	10%		Fresh NW	Night	10%		Light SW
	Max	Min			Max	Min
Some cloud	16	10		Showers	18	3

Tomorrow morning a sou'west change moves through between 3am and 8am — affecting Darfield and Ashburton first, then reaching Christchurch around 8am. A few millimetres accompany the change, clearing to showers by mid-morning. Temperatures drop several degrees behind the change, reaching only the mid-teens. The Kaikōura Coast sees gusty southwesterlies to 53 km/h in the morning. Tomorrow night the wind backs to the northwest through the foothills. Culverden sees fresh nor'wester gusts to 59 km/h during the the evening. Elsewhere conditions ease with light winds and clearing skies overnight. Frost develops in sheltered inland areas.
unday morning sees a fresh nor'wester across the foothills — gusts to 57 km/h at Culverden. A southerly change moves through during the afternoon, reaching Ashburton and Timaru around midday and pushing north to Rangiora and Christchurch by mid-afternoon. A few millimetres of rain accompany the change, mainly north of Ashburton. Lewis Pass may see light snow above 700 metres. 22% risk of some flurries to 500m on the hills. Sunday night the southerly eases and backs southwest. Banks Peninsula remains exposed, with sharp gusts to 86 km/h at Akaroa through the evening. Ground frost develops across inland areas from Timaru through to Culverden.

Day	Airflow	High °C	Frost	Watch
Friday	Fresh NE, heavy rain PM	16–23	—	Gusts 75 km/h Darfield
Saturday	Moderate SW change, → W evening, showers AM	14–18	—	—
Sunday	Moderate S, → SSW evening, showers evening	15–18	Ground inland	Gusts 86 km/h Akaroa · Snow Lewis Pass
Monday	Light NE, → W overnight, fine	11	Ground	—
Tuesday	Light NE, fine	11–14	Ground inland	—
Wednesday	Light NE, → WNW overnight, patchy drizzle	12–14	Ground inland	—
Thursday	Light E, → WNW overnight	10–13	Ground inland	—
Next Friday–Next Sunday	Light E, → S evening	9–13	Ground inland	—

10-Day Rainfall & Water Balance

Ensemble median rainfall with likely range (middle 50% of outcomes). Water balance = rainfall minus ET₀.

Station	10-Day Rainfall	Water Balance
Darfield	27 mm expected, likely 21–31 mm	+9 to +20 mm surplus — adequate
Temuka	25 mm expected, likely 22–28 mm	+11 to +17 mm surplus — comfortable
Culverden	23 mm expected, likely 18–27 mm	+7 to +16 mm surplus — adequate
Methven	23 mm expected, likely 20–29 mm	+11 to +19 mm surplus — comfortable
Ashburton	19 mm expected, likely 16–23 mm	+4 to +12 mm surplus — adequate
Hinds	19 mm expected, likely 16–23 mm	+4 to +12 mm surplus — adequate
Rangiora	18 mm expected, likely 15–22 mm	+3 to +11 mm surplus — adequate

Water balance: ■ comfortable ■ moderate ■ thin ■ deficit risk

Monday is fine across the region following the overnight wind shift. Light northeasterlies develop during the day, penetrating right across the plains. Temperatures reach only 10 to 12°C with ground frost overnight in sheltered inland locations.

Next Tuesday remains fine with light northeasterly sea breezes developing during the day. Variable cloud, temperatures 11 to 14°C, ground frost overnight inland.

Next Wednesday sees increasing low cloud across the plains with a light southerly flow. Patchy drizzle possible on Banks Peninsula and the coast. Ground frost overnight inland.

Next Thursday is grey and gloomy across most of the region under persistent low cloud. Light easterlies, temperatures 6 to 13°C, ground frost inland.

Confidence decreases from next Friday — the following is indicative only. Next Friday through next Sunday sees a continuation of the grey pattern with light easterly winds. Occasional drizzle is possible, mainly coastal. Ground frost overnight in sheltered inland areas. The Mackenzie Basin remains cold with temperatures barely above 5°C.

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Water Balance

Evapotranspiration ET₀ (mm/day)
Location	Fri 08 May	Sat 09 May	Sun 10 May	Mon 11 May	Tue 12 May	Wed 13 May	Thu 14 May	Fri 15 May	Sat 16 May	Sun 17 May	Mean
Culverden	1.10	1.92	2.19	1.25	1.16	0.63	0.90	0.65	0.64	0.95	1.14
Rangiora	1.74	1.46	1.64	1.54	1.10	0.83	0.99	0.55	0.92	1.08	1.19
Darfield	1.57	1.61	1.89	1.35	1.12	0.66	1.01	0.75	0.84	0.97	1.18
Ashburton	1.19	1.55	1.65	1.29	1.11	0.71	0.93	0.55	0.74	0.94	1.07
Methven	1.03	1.31	1.26	1.14	1.11	0.74	1.03	0.57	0.77	0.94	0.99
Hinds	1.36	1.26	1.85	1.43	1.05	0.65	0.82	0.70	0.81	0.97	1.09
Temuka	0.66	1.44	1.61	1.27	0.99	0.64	0.61	0.77	0.76	0.90	0.97

Rainfall (mm)
Location	Fri 08 May	Sat 09 May	Sun 10 May	Mon 11 May	Tue 12 May	Wed 13 May	Thu 14 May	Fri 15 May	Sat 16 May	Sun 17 May	Total
Culverden	14.4	1.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.4
Rangiora	10.2	2.6	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.8
Darfield	10.2	5.7	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	19.7
Ashburton	5.8	13.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	20.8
Methven	10.9	13.2	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	27.2
Hinds	5.6	12.3	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	19.4
Temuka	17.3	8.6	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	27.3

Cumulative Water Balance (mm)
Location	Fri 08 May	Sat 09 May	Sun 10 May	Mon 11 May	Tue 12 May	Wed 13 May	Thu 14 May	Fri 15 May	Sat 16 May	Sun 17 May	Final
Culverden	+13.3	+13.1	+14.2	+12.9	+11.8	+11.1	+10.2	+9.6	+9.0	+8.0	+8.0
Rangiora	+8.5	+9.6	+10.0	+8.4	+7.3	+6.5	+5.5	+4.9	+4.0	+2.9	+2.9
Darfield	+8.6	+12.7	+14.0	+12.7	+11.6	+10.9	+9.9	+9.7	+8.9	+7.9	+7.9
Ashburton	+4.6	+16.6	+15.8	+14.5	+13.4	+12.7	+11.8	+11.7	+11.1	+10.1	+10.1
Methven	+9.9	+21.8	+23.6	+22.5	+21.3	+20.6	+19.6	+19.0	+18.2	+17.3	+17.3
Hinds	+4.2	+15.3	+14.3	+12.9	+11.9	+11.2	+10.4	+10.3	+9.5	+8.5	+8.5
Temuka	+16.6	+23.8	+23.0	+21.7	+20.7	+20.1	+19.5	+19.2	+18.6	+17.7	+17.7

Irrigation Data

Search the evapotranspiration levels for your farming area through The National Climate Database.

Soil and Grass Temperatures

Search the soil and grass temperatures for your farming area through The National Climate Database.

Rainfall Charts

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