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After two years of oversupply in the global ryegrass and clover seed market, arable farmers can expect more positivity when next season’s contracts are released, says Methven farming leader John McCaw.
Federated Farmers’ herbage seed subsection chair, John McCaw says that grain and seed companies have all reported stronger than expected autumn sales. Sales have been strong within New Zealand and Australia, as high dairy and livestock prices lead farmers to renew pastures.
Globally, the United States’ tariff war with China has led to a sharp lift in demand for Nui ryegrass (a popular New Zealand-bred “common” non-proprietary variety). “China stopped buying seed from the US and needed an alternative, so came looking for Nui. This happened very quickly and is good news for everybody, as it has freed up a lot of carryover supplies and storage.”
Elsewhere, heatwaves and drought in key herbage seed production areas in the US and Europe are impacting on grass and cocksfoot seed production.
“This will help to balance global supplies. While a global oversupply still exists, the pendulum is well and truly swinging the other way.
“Things are picking up, markets are improving and arable has a bright future,” John McCaw says.
Arable seed exports are worth $340 million, with another $1 billion in arable production underpinning the domestic pastoral sector.
New Zealand certified seed production averages around 50,000 tonnes a year of herbage seed – mainly ryegrass, clover and cocksfoot – and other small seeds. This production peaked in the 2023 harvest at 60,000t. The 2025 harvest is estimated to be 37,000t, the lowest volume since 2014.
PGG Wrightson Seeds general manager production George Gerard says that as 80 per cent of domestically-grown small seed is exported, New Zealand is very exposed to international markets.
“The major markets of Europe and North America have been subdued for the last two years due to surplus inventory and issues with tariffs. New Zealand has benefited from this in being able to shift some surpluses and commodities into China albeit at relatively low margins. European and North American surpluses are diminishing too but will probably take another 12 months to clear.
“The New Zealand domestic market for seed has bounced back strongly this autumn after a poor couple of years due to low pastoral farmgate returns. This uptick has been welcomed by proprietary seed companies with proprietary ryegrass, white clover and other forage species.
“The overall outlook for arable is positive. Although the 2026 harvest crop will be similar in size to 2025, it is expected that the planted area will increase for 2027 harvest for both domestic and international markets,” George Gerard says.
John McCaw also expects more contracted area and positivity in the market when contracts are being offered in autumn 2026. He hoped that companies would contact growers regarding contracts earlier and with a few more options than recent years. “Every day that the seed is not in the ground is a loss of production for lamb finishing, which is also an important part of the budget.”
Grass seed crops are a key component on mixed arable farms as they provide a dual income as livestock grazing before being closed for a seed crop. They also provide a restorative phase in the cropping rotation.
“As an industry, we are a bit prone to looking over the fence at our dairy farming neighbours and questioning our life choices. However, in doing so we are comparing dairy at an all-time high with historically low arable prices. That gap will close.
“There will be consolidation in the arable industry as people retire or convert to other land uses, primarily dairy. As long as we are able to maintain a critical mass, it will open up opportunities for those who remain in arable,” John McCaw says.
“It was a tough harvest but as growers turn their minds to next year optimism is returning to the industry. That’s the beauty of arable’s annual cycle. When you see those rows of crop emerge you can see the potential and that still excites me.”