Local Market Update

 

  • Cereal crops are performing well in general with the recent rain having especially benefited dryland crops in South Canterbury.

  • Pasture growth on dairy platforms has improved with quality becoming the issue, leaving many to keep supplement feeding to maintain high production for expected milk solids pay-out. With lower-than-normal grain stocks for this time of year the continued usage has kept the price high.

  • Feed wheat pricing for 2022 supply contracts looking around $40/t up on 2021 level

  • PKE spot price is sitting around $395-$400 per tonne ex store.

  • Industry buyers are maintaining an interest in securing grain for the remainder of 2021

 

Ruralco are always looking for grain to supply a wide range of end users. Drop in your sample at any Ruralco Store or call the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 787 256 to arrange sample bags or pick up. For queries about free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact the Ruralco Seed Team or request a call back below.

 

Request a Call back

 

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne*

 

Import Pricing Per Tonne*

*Pricing at 30 November 2021.

Meet Our Experts

 

Craig Rodgers

GROUP MANAGER ON FARM SALES

@: Craig.Rodgers@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 495 2029

 

John Scott

GRAIN & SEED CO-ORDINATOR

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

 

 

Australian Update

Strong investment highlights ag sector confidence: CBA

Continued confidence across Australia’s agriculture industry has seen strong business investment through this year’s harvest season, according to Commonwealth Bank’s Regional and Agribusiness division.

Executive General Manager of regional and agribusiness Paul Fowler said the ongoing strength of the agricultural sector was being felt far beyond the industry itself.

“Despite the widespread disruptions that we’ve seen over the past year, it’s positive to see the agriculture industry expanding and adapting to take a leading role in the nation’s economy,” he said.

“Not only are regional communities benefiting from the ongoing confidence but the whole country is seeing the economic value while experiencing the high-quality food and fibre our farmers produce.”

The recent seasonal conditions across much of Australia, fast rising rural property values, and record low interest rates have fuelled ongoing positivity about the future outlook with farmers investing in growth opportunities.

Surge in machinery purchases

Government incentives, including the instant asset write off and SME recovery loan schemes also continue to drive additional investment in upgrading or replacing machinery.

Financing for agri-machinery has already risen 25 per cent this financial year (July – October) compared to the same time last year, with wine-making equipment up 152pc, headers up 101pc, ag bins up 64pc and all-terrain vehicles up 46pc.

The Northern Territory has led the investment in agri-machinery, up 138pc since this time last year, followed by Victoria up 60pc and Queensland up 49pc.

“We’re seeing agribusinesses take the opportunities that have come from the past year and examine their operations, implement new ideas and innovative solutions to support their business goals,” Mr Fowler said.

“Although there have been challenges getting new assets into the country due to global shipping delays, businesses have remained optimistic, and we expect the high confidence to continue into 2022 and beyond.”

Drew Hawkins, chief executive officer of Total Ag Solutions Pty Ltd, an Ag Machinery and Truck retail business based in Wagga Wagga, NSW, has been navigating the huge surge in demand for equipment despite the supply chain delays.

“Over the past 18 months, we’ve needed to make some adjustments to how we operate, incorporating more forward planning to manage the surge of demand we’ve seen for ag machinery.

“With delays in overseas production and shipping, we’ve done more advance ordering to ensure we’re able to meet the incredible investment taking place across the industry.

“We’ve also taken the opportunity to develop our existing Wagga and Tumut locations as well as expand our footprint to support more ag communities locally by opening in Canowindra, with investment in additional locations at Cowra and Young in the coming 12 months.

“We are also focussing on investing in our staff development – seeking more great staff to join the growth journey in our business, and the sector.”

Source: CBA

Feed Wheat Comparison

 

 

Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Update

HIGHLIGHTS

The outlook for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is 3m t lower m/m (month-on-month), including cuts for wheat and barley (mainly for Iran and Algeria), but an increase for maize (led by the USA). The figure for consumption is trimmed by 2m t, as downgrades for food and feed are only partly offset by an increase for industrial uses. Taking account of larger than previously estimated opening inventories, the forecast for end-2021/22 stocks is unchanged m/m, at 600m, only a small contraction y/y (year-on-year). As m/m increases for wheat and barley shipments are balanced by a reduction for maize, world trade (Jul/Jun) is still placed at 421m t.

With upgraded outlooks for Brazil and the Black Sea region offsetting a downgraded US crop figure, the Council’s forecast for 2021/22 soyabean output is maintained at a record of 380m t (+4% y/y). Consumption is trimmed slightly but owing to a smaller estimate for carry-ins, stocks are seen little-changed m/m, at 60m t (+11%). Including a reduced figure for deliveries to China, global import demand is predicted slightly lower than before, at 168m t (+5%).

The Council’s forecast for global rice trade in 2021 is fractionally higher m/m, at 48.3m t (44.0m), on stronger than anticipated demand from buyers in Asia. While 2021/22 world production is projected little-changed m/m, at a peak of 513m t (+1% y/y), end-season stocks are lifted from before, to 184m (+3m y/y), on an upward revision for India. The outlook for global import demand in 2022 is maintained and would be steady y/y.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbed by 1% m/m, as weaker soyabean and rice prices were offset by net gains for wheat, maize, and barley.

OVERVIEW

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 76m t y/y, to a record 2,287m, including new peaks for maize and wheat. Led by higher feed and industrial uses of maize (both at record levels), and greater food use of wheat (also a record), grains consumption is predicted to grow by 3%. World stocks are seen dropping to a six-year low of 600m t (-2m y/y). While the global carryover of wheat is expected to be only modestly below the all-time high of the year before, wheat inventories in the major exporters could be at a nine-year low. Trade (Jul/Jun) is placed 1% lower y/y, including higher shipments of wheat and sorghum, but falls for maize, barley, and oats.

Building on a sizeable US harvest, expectations for a record global soyabean crop in 2021/22, placed at 380m t (+4% y/y), also stem from bigger or record outturns in South America, where planting is well underway. Linked to gains in Asia and captive producers, expanded demand for soyabean products is seen pushing up total utilisation to a new peak. Aggregate inventories could increase for a second consecutive year, including in the major exporters, led by the US. Trade is predicted to grow by 5% y/y, primarily on bigger shipments to Asia. With US dispatches set to retreat, South American exporters are expected to increase their share of the global total.

Stronger demand from importers in Asia and Africa is seen pushing up world rice trade to a peak of 48.3m t (44.0m) in 2021. Linked to another record outturn in India, global production in 2021/22 is forecast at a fresh high, while inventories are seen expanding on accumulation in the major exporters. Despite a likely contraction in feed uptake in China, consumption is predicted at a record on continued population growth. Trade is projected little-changed y/y in 2022 as a potential reduction in deliveries to Asia is countered by firmer demand in Africa.

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI firmed slightly over the past month, as increased wheat, maize, and barley export prices compensated for declines for soyabeans and rice.

Underpinned by supply tightness in the major exporters, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by a net 5%, touching its highest in more than 10-years at times.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index was up fractionally m/m, with largely offsetting movements in the key suppliers.

Amid limited fresh export demand in Thailand and expectations for a bumper kharif crop in India, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index eased by 1% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was little-changed m/m, with pressure from prospects for heavy supplies and a downturn in soya oil values offset by support from improved export demand.

 
 
 
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